Thursday, May 14, 2009

Celtics-Magic Game 6

One of the coolest things about blogging is that you have your own personal time-stamped perspective out there. So everyone can see precisely how prophetic you were. Or how incredibly wrong you were. Stan Van Gundy is one home loss away from adding to the country’s record unemployment numbers. Did anyone see this coming when the series was 1-1. I did, from last blog, prior to game 3:

This is about the most irritated and personal that I have gotten, but Stan Van Gundy is a fat load of crap and his team hates his guts. Keep on screaming you loon, you’re screaming your team right out of the playoffs and right out of a job. Well, at least there’s that porn thing to fall back on, assuming he can still find it down there.

I’m so pleased with my analysis, I won’t even gloat any further. Here’s why the Magic are cooked. They hate their coach. You can’t be having public apologies and meetings the day before game six to get the coach and star player on the same page. Shaq nailed it when he called SVG the master of panic. He panics, spreads the tension to his team, and then they choke. All he had to do was not be SVG, and this series would be over. The Celtics have played consistently below par, and they are one win away. I would give anything to see Shaq behind the Orlando bench tonight. Doesn’t he live down there?

Here’s why this thing is over in six. 5 for 29. That’s what Ray Allen has shot from 3 point land in this series. It has to end sometime, and that sometime is tonight. Well, that’s part of it. The reality is that there will come a point in the game when the Magic will face adversity and their loony coach will be screaming and flailing his arms and generally doing his enraged Homer Simpson impression. And each Magic player will have some derivative of the following thought: "I’m so tired of this effing imbecile screaming. He’s blown the last two games, if he would just shut the eff up, we’d be in Cleveland right now." And that will be that. You don’t bleed for a guy you hate. You don’t leave it all out on the court.

There will come a point when everything is going wrong that the players will collectively and silently come to the only possible conclusion, which is that "with a new coach, next year, we’ll be unstoppable." And that will be that. I am going way out on a limb here as the Celtics have been unfathomably inconsistent. But, nonetheless, it’s over. SVG finished it.

The Celtics have played with as much heart as any other team in any sport under any set of circumstances. Their bench consists of two points guards and Brian Scalabrine. Nobody else plays. Alright, granted that under 6 foot Eddie House is really a shooting guard, but that obscures the point. They have a back up point guard who has been out of basketball for the better part of two years and an under sized back up shooting guard, PLUS, the white guy with the padded head band to protect from future concussions. This is a truly unprecedented and unparalleled run.

Quick thought on Perkins. He has defensively dominated Dwight Howard. Feed Howard the ball, keep feeding him the ball. And he can keep taking that running left handed ugly-assed hook shot that keeps clinging off the backboard. Perkins’ performance with an injured shoulder has been staggering. He has dominated Dwight Howard. Howard should feel humiliated. Watch the Magic "love" their coach after tonight’s game.

I told my wife before the playoffs that I felt something special might be coming from the Celtics. The 2008 title run was amazing as we watched the Celtics struggle through as they learned how to be a playoff team together. But this year’s Celtics have one thing that the 08 team never had. They are massive underdogs. Most picked the Bulls to beat them. Nearly everyone picked the Magic to beat them. The experts will tell you the Celtics will be lucky to lose by less than 50 per game to Cleveland.

Getting to Cleveland, which is now inevitable, will be an extraordinary achievement for this team. And I don’t want to say the G-word, so I won’t. But let’s just say that if there was zero chance he could come back, he would have already had the surgery. Never say never. It would be as big an upset as I can remember, but that’s wherein the fun lies. How many times do you have to watch a 1-AA team play Michigan, or a 32 point NFL playoff game deficit until the impossible happens? Until Michigan loses or the Bills complete the biggest comeback in NFL history? How many? Just enough times, until you finally see it happen. That’s, in large part, why we watch. And if you watch long enough, you will eventually see the impossible.

I’m not going to go crazy, but I will say this. Cleveland will not have played a competitive game in the better part of a month, by the time the Conference Finals roll around. They have not faced any adversity. They have not been under pressure. Just saying. It ain’t over before they suit em up. LeBron’s foul count is up to 20 in his last 19 games after another 3 in game 4. Try this one on for size. Lebron has had 3 fouls in both game 4's this year. Game 4's in which the series were over and the opponents had already packed. Refs evening up a little after calling almost no fouls for the first three games? Seems so. Throw out those six in two, and Lebron would have 14 fouls in his last 17 games.

There should be an investigation. Where’s Oliver Stone when you need him? Doctor Phil anyways. I think it’s more feelings related. Can’t control the Leb-Lust.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Mother's Day quick word

Lebron foul count: With a shocking two fouls on the King in game 3, he is up to 17 fouls in his last 18 games.

NBA to Mavericks after they were cheated out of a possible game 3 victory: Sorry, the refs screwed it up. They didn’t just screw up, they robbed the Mavericks of their entire season, with one awful no-call. At 3-0, the series is over. Sorry, we didn’t call the foul that you were intentionally committing. NBA playoff officiating continues to deteriorate to woeful level. Why do these guys keep getting worse? Lebron commits less than a foul per game and teams are routinely screwed at the end of games. Or in the middle of games. Dwight Howard commits a foul on every screen he ever sets and routinely fouls Paul Pierce going to the hoop, but they never call it. Don't say it is green colored glasses. Watch the tape, these gyus are awful and it goes both ways. How about in game 2 where Baby touched the ball with both feet out of bounds and they still gave it to the Celtics. I loved the announcing team for Bos-Orl game 3 who were routinely stunned at calls or non-calls by the refs.

We’ve reached the point that it is overshadowing the game.

If the refs can stay out the way, look for something special from the C’s tonight.

Friday, May 8, 2009

LEB-LUST

NBA PLAYOFFS ROUND 2:

(Fouls called on Lebron in last 17 games: 15)

Before we get down to it, let’s give King James his props, a well deserved MVP. He is the league’s best player and most valuable, without question. I don’t have to like it, but I’m not crazy enough to deny it. This is why it is all the more frustrating that the officials continue to act like American Idol groupies in the face of the King. Including the four game sweep of the Pistons and two game 1/2 of a sweep of the Hawks, the King, has been whistled for a staggering 15 fouls in his last 17 games. And that number is only slanted upwards because after calling only 2 fouls on the King in the first 3 games of the Pistons series, the refs realized it was getting a little silly and tried to even things up by calling 3 fouls on the King in game four.

He is undoubtedly the best player, with unlimited physical gifts. Do we really need to give the extra advantage of him being officiated like Jesus by 3 Bishops? It is just plain silly, and it diminishes him and the sport. A foul is a foul. When you are as big, fast and strong as Lebron; when you are involved in as many physical collisions, it is inevitable that you foul people, at least a few times a game. But not the King. Keep track, going back 11 games into the regular season, when the Lebrons locked up the overall one seed and the MVP for the King, 9 fouls were called. With 6 more in the 5 playoff games, we are up to 15 fouls in his last 17 games. As a service to our readers, we will keep track as often as we can get around to it. I’m begging the officials, stop embarrassing yourselves with your Leb-lust.

One more thing here because I just can’t resist. Lebron is quickly catching up to Tim Duncan with the outraged "are you kidding me, you’re calling a foul on me" face. Yes, King, we know you’re the best and the refs treat you like adolescent girls treat the Jonas brothers. Enjoy it. Don’t embrace and expect it. And don’t make the Duncan face when they make a call on you. You do commit fouls, every NBA player does. Well, almost every NBA player not blessed with official Leb-lust.

Hawks-Cavs:

Is there any way in the world that the Cavs lose this series? I suppose the King could throw his back out slipping on spilt milk at home, but short of that, no. That being said, if the Hawks want to make a series of it, and they do have the talent and athleticism to do so, they can. Assuming they don’t play every other game like complete cow plop as they did against the Heat.
The Hawks have a variety of athletes that can try to slow down Lebron just the tiniest bit. Whether is Joe Johnson or even Josh Smith at times or Marvin Williams. Just stand your ground, give up the jumper and try not to get beat too badly when he goes by.

I wrote this before the Hawks went down 2-0 and turned into a MASH unit, but the rest of this is still 100% applicable, although useless to the artists formerly known as the Atlanta Hawks.

The key to beating the Cavs is to not let the side dishes get you. It’s Thanksgiving, you’re going to gorge on turkey. Don’t fill up on the bread, chips, veggie dips and everything else. Enjoy your turkey and gravy and don’t get side tracked. Ok, it’s a poor analogy. But the mixed greens medley of Mo Williams, Delonte, Szczerbiak, in combination with the foreign specialty Illgauskus/Varejao salad , should not be kicking anyone’s ass. (We will come back to the myth that is the greatness of Mo Williams in a minute). The theme this year has been Lebron’s ascendancy to greatness and the vast improvement of his supporting cast. A cast that is essentially the same as last year’s with one Mo Williams added. Did these guys all get magically better over the summer, or are they about as good as they have always been? You make the call.

Guard your side dishes, let the turkey have his. Don’t double. The Cavs become unstoppable when teams start doubling Lebron. He’s too good a passer. Stay with him. If he scores, 50, 60, even 70, who cares. All the shooting may slow him down, just a hair anyways. You can’t have Illgauskus taking one wide open 15 footer after another. No open threes for Szcerb, Mo, or Delonte. No uncontested dunks for Varejao. Stay with your man. The Cleveland side dishes, not a singe one of them, can consistently create their own shot. Mo Williams, please, we’re coming back to him, don’t you worry. The side dishes have gotten very good and confident knocking down wide open jumpers or dunks. I once made 48 our of 50 foul shots with no one guarding me. These are professionals, why give them the out.

Stay with Lebron. There is this mentality that if one guy is scoring at will, that you need to double him. But when it results in the other 4 guys getting going, it doesn’t help. Not with this team. Stick with Lebron, and keep the side dishes in the fridge. It’s your only chance. Although the Hawks still have no chance, whatsoever.

On to Mo Williams, or as he is known by talking heads and everyone in the state of Ohio, the greatest point guard in the history of the universe. This is a point guard averaging 4.1 assists per game during the regular season and 4.7 in the playoffs. Sure he hits the open 3 and has hit some clutch shots and Lebron picks up the assist slack, but Moe also has never faced true playoff pressure. Mo, talk to me when you can legitimately be in the conversation of top 10 point guards. In no particular order, list of point guards better than Mo the Great:

Williams, Paul, Rondo, Chauncey, Calderon, Nash, Parker, Harris, Rose, Ford, and Miller. Alright, Miller’s a stretch but he was 11, and we’re not even including Duhon and J-Kidd. Mo Williams is the league’s most overrated player today. Mike Bibby will outplay him in this series.

And let's not forget this. The Cavs barely broke a sweat against the Quitters, oops, I mean Pistons and are going for another effortless sweep. These are not your 95-96 Bulls. They are not playoff tested as a group. I'm not saying they can be stopped, but they will be going into the Conference finals without having played a competitive game in more than a month. Think that's not a negative?

THE RAJON RONDO SHOW

How good is Rajon Rondo? Through 9 grueling playoff games, Rondo is averaging 18.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 11.9 assists and 2.7 steals. Assist to turnover ratio: 4.25:1. This is how you gauge how good a player is. If you could start a team right now who would you start with. Number one, Lebron. Number two, Dwight Howard. After that, Rondo. Kobe, please, too old. You want Chris Paul, you can have him. Rondo consistently outplays him. Derron Williams, same answer. D-Wade, lotta miles and injuries on that frame, but he could be three to Rondo's four, I suppose. Rondo consistently outplays every top point guard. He’s 23. In his third year. And he is carrying a decimated Celtics team in this year’s playoffs. He is the single most electrifying player in the league.

Write this down: Rajon Rondo will average a triple double for a season. He’s not even reached his prime. He will average the triple double and he will win the MVP. Call me a fan boy if you will. But, the points and assists will be easy. He just needs to grab enough rebounds to get over the number. Probably not next year. However, when Rondo reaches his prime, 25-28, a season averaged triple double is coming. The Magic are finished. Rondo refuses to lose. In game two, the Magic were blasted with Paul Pierce scoring 3 points. Watch out.

By the way. Dwight Howard. Every pick Howard sets is an offensive foul, watch the tape. Don’t tell the refs, though, they must be having dreamy thoughts about Lebron.

Here is quote from Stan Van Gundy, who I think has just taken the award for the single dumbest pre-game comment, in reference to Alston’s suspension and complaining that Rondo should have been suspended for the Brad Miller foul in game 5 of the previous series. That’s right, the series that the soon to be out of work former porn star was not even a part of:

"The question everybody has is, 'Why when Brad Miller is going to the hoop, can you just take a swing?' You know, the only ones I think that agree that he didn't wind up and follow through were Stu Jackson and David Stern. I think everybody else, including Boston fans, know he wound up and followed through."

Really, Stan, even the Boston fans thought he should have been suspended? What’s your basis for that. Did your crabs tell you that? SVG, why, why are even bringing this up? How dumb are you? That wasn’t even your series. You’re going to compare a hard foul in live play to stop a basket to your slimy player slapping someone upside the head who is facing away from them. It seems pretty clear that Rondo has already taken "the leap", but what do you think he is going to do to your joke of a back court now? Pure, unadulterated idiocy. Is there any doubt that his quote will be on the blackboard in the Celtics’ locker room before game 3 tonight, any doubt at all?

I think there’s only one solution to this. For every game he coaches for the rest of his life, SVG should have to endure an unanticipated slap upside the head from behind, from one of the opposing team’s fans. He won’t know when it’s coming, but at some point in every game, someone gets to smack Ron Jeremy upside the head. We’ll see how he likes it.

This is about the most irritated and personal that I have gotten, but Stan Van Gundy is a fat load of crap and his team hates his guts. Keep on screaming you loon, you’re screaming your team right out of the playoffs and right out of a job. Well, at least there’s that porn thing to fall back on, assuming he can still find it down there.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Refs in the Tank for Lebron

Columnists and talking heads alike are trying to stir up some discussion as to who will actually be the NBA's MVP. Nice seasons from D-Wade, Howard and Kobe, among others, but this MVP rightfully belongs to Lebron. But we need to take a step back to look at the numbers and to analyze what happens when the refs turn into the equivalent of screaming Jonas Brothers groupies.

Lebron's season has been building to a crescendo all season. Clearly going to end with the best record and overall 1 seed for home court advantage through out the playoffs, all deserved kudos to Lebron. Is he a little irritating? Yeah. Did he steal his whole baby powder in the air before tip-off thing from Garnett, whose was doing when Lebron was just starting to get pubies? Sure, but he's Lebron: adore, admire and adulate. No thinking involved.

Just look at the way the groupy refs have called the games once we reached the latter stages of March. From March 22, 2009 forward, Lebron has played in 11 games. Lebron, a physical player, is involved in multiple plays per game that could be called either way. Whether it is a fight for a rebound, a collision over a loose ball, or a charge/block toss up, he is in a number of plays that could garner him a foul in each game.

Don't tell the groupies though, they are too busy screaming and peeing themselves like 60's Beatles fans. In these last 11 games, when Lebron has locked up the MVP, home court through out the playoffs and is about to tie for the best home record ever, how many fouls do you think have been called on him? 9. That's right, Mrs. Bueller, 9 times. 9 times has the whistle been blown and Lebron been at fault. Not that it has stopped him from crying about every call against him.

9 times, including a 5 game stretch without a foul. 1.7 fouls per game is what Lebron is averaging this year. This number is beyond comprehension for a massive, physical player, who is active on both boards, as well as frequent driver and blocker of shots. 9 fouls in 11 games. That's less than one per game. How many foul shots do you think Lebron took during this period? 96. No joke. 9 fouls called on him. 96 foul shots taken.

With Lebron clearly being the best player in the league, do we really need to give him this much help? This is not some NBA or ABC conspiracy theory. This is just what happens when short little men with the same cognitive processes seen in New Kids on the Block fans, see their hero. They are too busy squealing to blow the whistle. Unless, they are calling fouls on others fouling Lebron.

11 games, 9 fouls called against him and 96 foul shots taken. This is the most absurd result and will tarnish this year's playoffs irreparably if the refs don't stop pissing themselves with jubilation everytime Lebron hacks, runs over or pushes someone out of the way for a rebound. For comparison's sake, Kobe, averaging an entire foul more per game than Lebron, had 25 fouls called on him in his last 11 games. How bout a few more for comparison:

Fouls per game (season): Fouls last 11 games:

Lebron 1.7 9
Kobe 2.7 25
Pierce 2.7 25
Chris Paul 2.7 36
Dwight Howard 3.4 45
D-Wade 2.25 28


Even Jordan in his prime never had a season like this. 1.7 fouls per game. 9 fouls called since March 22, 2009. That's almost a month!?!

Let's not make this whole thing down right silly. The refs either need to stop shrieking like teenage girls at the sight of Lebron, or he will have one severely tainted NBA title in 2009.

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Steelers-Cardinals for all the Marbles

My favorite phrase of the last two weeks that has been said 8000 times: Ben Roethlisberger, the youngest QB ever to win the Superbowl. Let us not forget the Big Fraud’s performance in the biggest game of his career. 9-21. 123 yards, no touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Absent a few fishy calls, namely the phantom offensive pass interference on Seattle’s early touchdown and the Big Fraud is a goat of Neil O’Donnell proportions. But he was rescued in large part because one of his receivers happened to be a more accurate thrower than the BF, with Randle El throwing the Steelers’ only touchdown.

This was one of the single worst performances in Superbowl history and certainly the worst ever performance by a winning QB. Absent Gannon’s five interception disaster, the BF would stand alone holding the honor for single worst ever QB performance in the big game. Do people not remember this when they fawn all over BF, Brett Favre style?

Let’s also not forget that league MVP that year, Gannon, was facing his former coach. Much the same way BF is facing his former offensive coordinator. Think there is any other coach anywhere that might know more about the BF than Ken does? Not bloody likely. The Big Fraud continues to be the most overrated QB in NFL history and now the world will watch as he gets his second shot at the big game.

But none of this stops the media love affair with the BF. An under fifty percent dud two weeks ago against the Ravens when two of the three big plays BF made easily could have been interceptions. He does indeed lead a charmed life as he has for the entirety of his NFL career. Consistently backed by a top defense and running game, no one’s thrown less passes than BF in his early years. And he racks up huge Yards Per Pass stats over his career against nine men in the box defenses stacked up to stop the run. While I give BF all the credit for his agility, strength and ability to avoid the pass rush and extend the play, it does not change one simple fact. He is often not very accurate, the most important trait for a QB. An accurate QB would have blown out the Ravens two weeks ago as evidenced by wide open receivers missed time and time again.

Now BF faces a suddenly energized and ball hawking Cardinals defense that get no respect. Never underestimate the value of being the team no one respects or thinks can win. Ask last year’s Giants and Patriots. Ask Kurt Warner about his Superbowl experience against the Patriots. NFL films put together a wonderful half hour on last year’s Superbowl and there is some telling footage of Strahan pumping up his team before kick off. Ranting about facing the QB that cannot ever be hit. The QB no one can stop. Football is an emotional game and the Cardinals have the emotional edge. They will also have every neutral fan cheering for them, while being greatly out-numbered in the number of fans that have traveled, so they will likely be playing on at worst a neutral field. Don’t be surprised to see this crowd leaning the Cardinals way.

Rod Woodson made clear that this is the worst possible match up for the Steelers’ defense. He essentially said that the way you beat a dominant 3-4 defense is to spread them out and attack the seams. Precisely what the Cardinals do best. Add in a QB who reads defenses and makes decision as quickly as anyone ever has, with his quick release, and the Steelers’ defense might not be so dominant. Warner has also greatly improved his ball security, which will be essential. He will have Harrison and Woodley in his face at times, and his ball security will be imperative to a Cardinal victory. Polamalu is not going to be the mad man around the line of scrimmage that he usually is because the Steelers are terrified of Larry Fitzgerald. As they should be. No receiver has ever put together a more dominant three game playoff run.

A dominant receiver in the zone, clicking with his QB, can be unstoppable. Look at Randy Moss last year and in his 15-1 Minnesota season. Jerry Rice for years. T.O. in his prime. It can be nearly impossible to stop a dominant receiver. Don’t think the Steelers can out tough the Cardinals either. The Cardinals are lead by their QB and WR’s who are three of the toughest players in the league. Boldin playing mere weeks after having his face crushed, Warner always getting back up after every huge hit, standing in there til the last second. And Larry Fitzgerald never shies away from the ball, and why should he, he’s bigger than everyone out there trying to take him down.

The Steelers will be able to limit Fitzgerald to an extent, but he will still make some plays. The Steelers will consistently have both Ike Taylor and Polamalu on Fitzgerald, and at times a third defender. Larry will still make some plays because he cannot be stopped, but this is going to be Boldin’s coming out party. No one has a bigger chip on his shoulder coming into this game than Anquan Boldin. In his mind, he is every bit the receiver that Larry is, with none of the accolades. And he has been bashed by just about every talking head, sports writer and blogger from coast to coast. He’s selfish, he’s a cancer, he’s a bad teammate. All Anquan Boldin did in the Eagles game was have an emotional reaction, in an emotional sport, to not being on the field in the biggest game of his life. For shame Anquan Boldin, what an unforgivable crime. There has not been one iota of conversation about Boldin’s skills in comparison to all the chatter about his sideline argument with offensive coordinator, Haley.

Larry’s absurd three game performance mandates extreme measures will be put in place to stop him by the Steelers, which will open it up for Breaston and Boldin. His hammy should be mostly healed up, and if so, Boldin is a top ten receiver and this is his chance to go from the selfish guy who yelled at his coach in the championship game, to hero. I am predicting Anquan Boldin with a monster game and the MVP trophy in a tough call over Warner. 150 yards and 2 TD’s.

The Steelers will get their points and they will eat the clock as the Cardinals bend but don’t break. Ben will take chances on plays when he breaks the pocket and Adrian Wilson will come up with a big interception. Whisenhunt knows the Big Fraud as well as anyone and there will never be a better prepared defense to face him. The key to stopping the BF is to know that you must never drop your coverage, no matter how long it has been. A number of big plays that the BF has made in his career are due to the DB losing sight of the WR by looking back to Ben because they cannot believe the ball has not been thrown yet. You keep your coverage and look for the ball when the receiver does. If this had happened on the Holmes TD last week, it was an interception. But instead, the DB, who could not believe the play was still going on, looked back at Ben and lost his footing just as he was throwing the ball.

The BF is overrated because he is often inaccurate. And that is a killer for his position. You never see Tom Brady or Peyton Manning consistently miss wide open receivers, but you see it from the Fraud all the time. He will miss some passes because that is what he does. He will break containment and extend some plays with his feet. There will be plays where the coverage breaks down because you can only cover for so long, but the Cardinals will be able to limit these. The Steelers are going to score and there is no getting around that. This game comes down to the Cardinals defense making enough plays to slow the Steelers down, and getting the big turnover. Which they will. The BF’s inaccuracy and consistent habit of throwing to covered receivers as he extends the play, all while facing the offensive coordinator who mentored him, will be too much. The BF will prove everything I have ever written about him and he will still be beloved. It will all be an anomaly due to Whisenhunt’s inside knowledge. He ain’t that good, he never was.

The Cardinals can and will win this game because they have a Hall of Fame QB going against the league’s best defense. This has become a league where the offensives are ahead of the defenses because more scoring equals more excitement and more viewers, at least from the NFL’s perspective. The only way the Steelers win this game is if they are allowed to mug Cardinal receivers on every play, the way the Patriots did a few years ago to the Colts on their way to Superbowl number 2, I believe.

Now, I live in New England where Bill Polian is about as revered as Satan and it is blasphemy to say this, but there is no getting around the fact that the year before the refs started actually calling illegal contact, holding and interference, that the Patriots consistently mugged the Colts receivers on play after play in that playoff game. Belichick quickly realized with the new enforcement of the rules that you could construct an unstoppable offense, which he did. And if the Patriots had not been so arrogant in game planning to attack the Giants’ safeties with down the field passes and instead had relied on short passes, they would have won. But, they were arrogant. They did not believe anyone could apply pressure to Brady. And you can’t really blame them, because no one had. What you can blame them for and it has to be a mark against the single best coach ever, is that Belichick took far too long to make the adjustment to the underneath throws. He continued to try to attack the safeties as Brady was tenderized by the Giants’ front four.

The Cardinals will not make the same mistake as they know that Warner will be under pressure and they will be ready to make the quick read and release. This Steelers defense, which is great and is better than last year’s, still has a fundamental flaw. You can exploit them by spreading them out and attacking with quick passes if you have the QB and weapons to do so. The Cardinals have exactly that. Just like the Patriots did last year to the tune of 4 TD passes and 399 passing yards in a 34-13 drubbing of the Steelers. Again, I grant you that this is a better defense, but it can still be exploited with the right pieces. Which it will be.

Cardinals 31-27. MVP Boldin. From the only person anywhere who picked the Cardinals to win each and every playoff week. One more to go and they will not be stopped.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Conference Championship Follow-Up

Couple quick thoughts following championship Sunday.  Apologies to my erroneously calling Jim Johnson Joe Johnson.  This is what happens with no editor. 

Best sign of all time goes to the Cards fan with the "We are who we thought we were" sign.  You can't beat that.  


Well, we got one right and one wrong.  We’ll take 4-2 (both against the spread and with outright winners) in the last six playoff games.  Better than just about every “expert” out there.  Ravens were very much in that game and things could have been very different if Polamalu did not get the pick six, doing his Ed Reed imitation.  Roethlisberger clearly outplayed Flacco, much to my chagrin.  However, the gushing about the Big Fraud remains greatly misplaced.  Yes, he is excellent at avoiding the rush and extending the play.  Yes, he made three big plays that produced points.  Passes of 65, 45 and 30 yards to Holmes, Ward and Miller respectively.  However, two of these passes easily could have been intercepted.  


The opening drive pass to Ward was into blanketed double coverage and was a hair away from being intercepted by Ed Reed.  On the TD to Holmes, the receiver was blanketed and it likely would have been an interception if the defender did not fall down after BF’s wobbly, fluttering pass was thrown.  The one to Miller was, admittedly, very nice by BF.  However, of his 255 yards, 110 of them came on those two passes that were very nearly interceptions.  As for the rest of his performance: under 50% completions and bad throw after bad throw to wide open receivers.  BF badly missed on at least 10 throws, and if had not missed open receiver after open receiver, this game would have been a drubbing.  With Leftwich at QB, this game would have been a blow out.  BF’s inability to hit open receivers kept the Ravens in the game.

It’s all about accuracy when you are a QB.  Look at the Eagles-Cardinals games.  If Donovan McNabb was not erratic and inaccurate (Tavaris Jackson-style), the Eagles win.  When McNabb is good, he’s very good.  But when he’s bad, he’s awful.  He, like the BF, missed open receiver after open receiver and easily could have turned the game his way with some accuracy.  His completion percentage: 59.6%.  Warner’s: 75%.  Think that wasn’t the difference in the game?  


As for Flacco’s uneven performance, you have to give credit where credit is due and the same with blame.  Pittsburgh’s defense is unreal.  As good as any I have seen.  I cannot compare it to the ‘85 Bears since I was 9 years old that season.  But I have not seen a better defense and that includes the 2000 Ravens.  Defensive line: dominant.  Linebackers: terrifying.  Secondary: unbelievable.  Flacco had time on a number of occasions and everyone was blanketed.  However, he gets his share of blame for locking on to receivers and telegraphing passes.  Admittedly the Raven’s receivers are sub-par, but that was an absolutely dominant and smothering performance by the Steeler’s secondary.  Flacco will be back though and in five years he will be a far superior QB to the BF, because he has a stronger arm and is more accurate.  


As I proclaimed prior to this game, Larry Fitzgerald is the NFL’s best receiver and he made sure to prove it.  More yards than Jerry Rice in a single post-season, staggering.  With his Superbowl performance to come, he will set a mark that may never be broken.  I had the displeasure of listening to some Patriot fan loonies claiming that Randy Moss is better this morning.  Their position was that the very idea that Fitzgerald was better was ridiculous and absurd.  Up here in Patriot land, the fans are a little biased, to say the least.  That is a laughable proposition.  Larry is head and shoulders the best receiver in the league.  His last five games including 3 playoff upsets, 650 yards, 8 TD’s on 31 catches.  That’s 21 yards per catch.  He was also covered by a top 3 (if not the single best) cornerback in Asante Samuel and he absolutely torched him.  Randy Moss largely disappears (particularly in recent years) with double coverage.  With Larry, it doesn’t make a difference, just throw it up.  Cardinals only let the Eagles back in the game by not throwing to Larry for most of the 2nd half.  I don’t care if he’s covered or even if you can’t see him.  Just throw it in his general direction and he’s going to go up there and get it.  Randy Moss was almost a complete non-factor in the Patriots Superbowl loss.  Sub Fitzgerald for Randy and the Patriots would have been 19-0.  


Aside from his rookie year and the year he struggled with injuries, every year (and there’s only three since this is his fifth year) he’s gone for over 1400 yards and double digit touchdowns.  He has just under 6000 yards and 46 touchdowns in the regular season.  That does not include the playoffs and leaves him just 28 shy of breaking into the top 25 all time receiving TD leaders.  And he’s in his 5th season.  If averages just the 9 touchdowns that he has been for his career so far, for another 5 years, he will be in the top 10.  This is an all time great receiver and he is far better than anyone in the league at the moment.  He has the best hands and leaping ability of any receiver all time, and he is deadly after the catch.  These playoffs have been his coming out party and the Superbowl will be his ultimate stage to shine.  Larry Fitzgerald vs. one of the best defenses of all time.  If he does it again, no one will ever again be able to credibly question his greatness.  

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Conference Championship Weekend

How come the morons that are in charge of the major sports can’t make a decision that makes sense, might be in the interest of people’s safety, or, heaven forbid, might increase viewership? World Series games end well after midnight, with a short game. NBA Finals games start after 9 pm. Obviously, we are talking east coast here, you know, only the place where the vast majority of the country’s population lives. The NHL sold their major tv deal to a channel no one has ever heard of or can find. Can anyone name for me a single "Versus" show? I just googled them and I saw something about bull riding, so obviously, they know what they’re doing.

The NFL manages to avoid these disasters and actually have their marquis games on when people who have jobs or go to school can actually watch them. Note to the three major sports not raking in money NFL style. If you don’t hook em as kids, you’re never gonna get em. However, in one of their more foolish moves, the NFL has completely blown it this Conference Championship weekend, by throwing all reason and logic out the window. Alright, we have two games. One at 3:00 pm and one at 6:30 pm, both times Eastern. One in the warm desert. One in the frigid and snowy northeast. One in the Eastern time zone. One in the Pacific time zone. This means the 3:00 pm kickoff takes place at noon in the Pacific time zone. So, what would make more sense? Have the game in Arizona be the late game or have the late game in Pittsburgh? Have the Steelers fans out in the elements until after 10:00 pm? Or give them the early game and reduce the likelihood of drunken hypothermia? Have the Cardinals playing at noon local time or 3:30 local time?

You, of course, know the answer. The Cardinals have the early game and the Steelers the late game. This would be a moot point if the Giants had won and both games were on the east coast, but that is precisely what the problem here is. The Giants, a shadow of their former selves without as Plax (precisely as predicted here, mind you) got embarrassed and the Cards get the home game. Yes, the CBS and FOX schedules are set in advance, but are you really telling me they can’t make the switch? It is pure and unadulterated foolishness. And with all the more time to get good and liquored up with a 6:30 start at Pittsburgh, are we really going to be surprised by the multiple people sent to the hospital from the Pittsburgh game due to exposure? Shame on you NFL, this was an easy and logical fix. Steelers play at 3:00, west coast game at 6:30. It’s not rocket science.

On to the games.

Ravens +6 over STEELERS

Six points against the Ravens defense and the weather is too much. Especially since the Ravens are going to win outright. Two best defenses in the league. The winner of this game will be the team that avoids the turnovers. Fast Willie will not look so fast against the Ravens warp speed defense. Expect neither team to have much success with the running game. This game comes down to the QB’s. Roethlisberger vs. Flacco. A no brainer right? Not so fast. You have the unflaccable Joe Flacco against the Big Fraud. QB rating this year. Flacco: 80.3. Big Fraud: 80.1. Surprised?

This is territory that we have covered before, but until the truth is known, we will continue to shout it from the hilltop. The Big Fraud is the single most overrated player at the QB position, ever. BF has been insulated by a top 3 offensive line and top rated running game every year of his career, except this one. Well below the league average in pass attempts per game. And what was the result? 8-9 men in the box stacked up to stop the run, play action passes, and big plays downfield. All inflating his quarterback rating, yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio. But, unfortunately for the BF, the honeymoon is over. No more impenetrable O-line, no more unstoppable running game. The BF now faces the same level playing field that the rest of the league’s QB’s do.

The result? 17 TD’s, 15 INT’s and a lower QB rating than his counterpart in today’s game. How bout a closer look at the numbers? Third down passer rating: 73.5. Fourth down: 0.0 That’s 4 passes, no completions and 3 interceptions. Flacco. Third down passer rating: 86.3 Fourth down: 111.7. That’s five attempts and four completions. The higher the stakes, the better Flacco has done. Flacco has the NFL’s strongest arm (athough it is very close between he and Cutler) to cut through the wind and snow. He beat the Titans with 2 huge throws. He’s seen the Steelers twice already this year and should not be surprised by the speed. Be ready to hit the hot route and watch out for Woodley and Harrison.

The unflappable rookie versus the overrated veteran. I’ll take Joe to do it again and the Big Fraud to throw the pick six to Ed Reed. Big Fraud proves everything I have ever written about with him with 2-3 turnovers in this game. Steelers best chance to win this game is if something happens to the BF and Leftwich ends up under center. The train wreck is coming. Wait for it.

Ravens 23-15

CARDINALS +4 over Eagles

Anyone talking about Brian Westbrook being an unstoppable force has not been watching the games. 2 games, 74 yards rushing and one big screen play with all of the Vikings stuck upfield. He looks like what he is. A banged up running back averaging under 2 yards per carry in the playoffs. Throw out that one screen play and he has 96 total yards in the playoffs. How many touches? 42. He’s a non factor against a defense that completely shut down 2 of the 3 best running attacks in the NFL the first two weeks of the playoffs. McNabb has been alright in the playoffs, 2 TD’s 3 INT’s. But he is now facing a ball hawking Cardinals defense who have it all coming together at the right time.

Never underestimate the "everybody thinks we stink" mentality. The Cardinals have been wholly disrespected all season long and being a 4 point home dog is only furthering that perspective. The Eagles and Joe Johnson’s crazy blitzing defense are going up against the wrong guy. Nobody makes quicker decisions than Kurt Warner. And he gets the ball out fast, fast, fast. He’s throwing to the NFL’s best receiver in Larry Fitzgerald and it seems like Boldin will be back on the field. And you could argue Boldin vs. Fitzgerald. Loss of the tight end does concern me here, but you can’t stop Kurt. He’s going back to the Superbowl.

Warner is not the guy to Blitz. Remember how Belichick stopped the greatest show on turf. He blitzed only about 5 times in that game, kept the receivers in front and punished them. Not saying that would work here (receivers are bigger than the defenders), but you don’t blitz Warner when he has these weapons or he will burn you. And Joe Johnson can’t not blitz (excuse the double negative). People underestimate the importance of who you’re throwing to. If Eli had Plax on the field last week, he gets some big plays on those blitzes and we’re having an entirely different discussion.

Cardinals also continue to work in the run nicely. The Eagles have had a long tough road to get here. Don’t underestimate the miles they’ve traveled and the emotional frenzy they got into to face the champs last week. They can’t be as up for the Cards, even in the conference championship game. Everyone has been telling them all week that it will be a cake walk. They already slaughtered this team by 28 points this year. But, these are not those same Cardinals. They are now a run stuffing, ball hawking defense. A balanced and explosive offense with a QB who has won the big game. Expect to see this game end with McNabb vomiting and out of breath in the last few minutes as he tries to run the hurry up. It will be too little too late. And he doesn’t have T.O. to carry his jock as he did in the Superbowl. This time, he’s got the injured running back and the receiver so stupid that he has gone into the end zone to score multiple times in his career without the football.

Cardinals 38-27.