packers -3 over LIONS
Strong desire to pick against Rodgers who is getting way too much praise for throwing under 180 yards and one TD against a historically bad pass defense. Packers easily could have lost that game if Tavaris "pending disaster" Jackson had one more drive in him. But the Lions are a special breed of bad. After getting slaughtered by the Falcons, no really, the Falcons, they're taking bad to a whole new level. They're "Millen" bad. 31-82. Lions under Matt Millen. Apparently only an 0-16 will end his tenure. Let's all hope for that for Lions' fans sake. I also want to petition the NFL to move the Lions to somewhere in Missouri, because that's apparently where incompetent ownership, horrific coaching and depressed fans live. That's the "Show Me" state spirit. That's it, it's official, Detroit is in Missouri as far as I am concerned for the rest of the season. Missouri win over/under between the three teams is now up to 10. I'm still betting the under.
raiders +3.5 over CHIEFS
Two horrendous teams battle for inferiority. Can't you just see Lane and Herm throwing back a couple at some dive bar after a 6-6 tie. "I'm rethinking the whole 'play to win the game thing'. This tie thing feels pretty good. Now, we play not to lose the game. With my coaching that's the best we can hope for anways. Hey, where'd Lane go?" Poor Lane, thrown out of a KC bar because they didn't accept his out of state ID as legitimate. Patriots trade a 4th rounder for Randy Moss. Chiefs trade a 4th round pick for Herm. Maybe they can trade for Matt Millen next year.
RAMS +8 over giants
Rams may be just awful, awful, awful, but they're getting 8 points at home. Giants have got to be flat for this one after waiting for their coronation for 7 months. Giants still have a lot to prove. They remind me of the Pats after first Superbowl when the eviscerated the Steelers in the opener, despite being underdogs. Only difference, 02 Patriots were vastly superior to their 01 counterparts. 07 Giants would be a 6 point favorite on a neutral field over the 08 Giants incarnation. Late TD beats the number for the Rams. Stephen Jackson needs some fantasy points or he's going to trade himself in fantasy leagues. He'll get em late when it's over.
colts -2 over VIKINGS
I don't care how bad the Colts looked in their season and new barn opener. The Vikings pass defense is historically bad. And the Colts are sure to improve their offensive rhythm with time. Tavaris Jackson is the Matt Millen (the executive anyway) of QB's, his track record is just not as long. This pass defense is horrendous and it has been for sometime, look it up. 10/30/06. Brady scorches Vikes for 372 yards and 4 TD's with his top two wide receivers, Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel going for 12 and 167 with a TD. Corey Dillon had a 27 yard catch, even Chad Jackson caught something non-contagious. What, you may be wondering, is the relevance of this nearly two year old game? The Vikes pass defense was bad then, and it's worserer (yes it needed a new word) now. AP may go for 160+ but Peyton goes for 300+ and 3 TD's.
titans +1 over Bengals
Do you feel for Marvin Lewis for going with felon after felon, low character guys, or do you blame the guys themselves for showing their true colors? Now, I know Marvin did not pick up all these guys himself, but he's on the hook for a lot of them. I don't think there's a coach in the league the Marvin would not trade places with in a second. Carson Palmer has never been the same since he blew out his knee, Patriots nation. Marvin Lewis will be 10 days away from his 50th birthday on Sunday. To use some movie trailer jargon, "every man has his breaking point." How surprised would we be to read in the news that Marvin Lewis flipped out with some wild criminal act after two more losses and 3 more team arrests. I would give him a "get out of jail free" card. Actually scratch that, he decided to add character issue guy after character issue guy, and look what it has gotten him. We reap what we sow, Marvin.
Side note: How hard is it to understand that if you are the mother of a professional athlete, particularly a football player, never tell the media how your kid's feelings are hurt and the fans are being mean to him. Do I really have to say this? You think with the multi-million dollar contracts, the NFL could give out a little handbook for them to give to their mothers, "10 things not to say".
saints even over REDSKINS
Jim Zorn did not install a no huddle offense during camp or preseason. I'm assuming he knew that his west coast passing offense would be so stellar they would never need it. I will pick against the Skins every week until they are playing on a level field with the rest of the league. I can't get over this. He's an offensive specialist. He did not change the running game. What the heck did he do with his team all summer? Shockey's going to a be a monster with the Saints running low on receivers. Shouldn't David Patten start to age at some point? He was old when the Pats won their first superbowl. If I don't capitalize it will I get a letter from Goodell? Jason Campbell is going to need a therapist soon. Maybe he can go with Marvin Lewis and get a group rate.
bears +3 over PANTHERS
I have no strong feeling on this game. Both teams overachieved in week one, someone is due to flounder. Panthers have more to lose at home, so I pick them to lose. Bears will ride the energy from the "yeehaa, Rex ain't our QB no more" sentiment to a division title. If one of your star players is going to punch out a teammate, how can the "ragin' cajun" not be involved somehow, it just seems wrong. Does Steven Smith have to hear what a**hole he is on every play from trash talking defenders?
bills + 5.5 over JAGUARS
The Jags were one of those trendy picks this year. Now, the Bills are up and comers, improving defense, decent O-line, excellent running back, contemplative and improving QB, good skill position guys. Are they getting too much credit for destroying Seattle, not with this line apparently. Does Seattle ever play well when their trip is more than 2000 miles? I have not the resources for that answer, but my suspicion is not bloody likely. This game is a total toss up as far as I can tell. I go with the Bills because they, beyond any other team, have the "no one believes in us" sentiment in their favor and are getting a nice 5.5 points. Jets and Pats fight for AFC East supremacy this week. That's been the story right? You know the Bills are playing this angle up big time. Bills ride it to victory, but I feel better with those points.
SEAHAWKS -7 over 49ers
Fox must be salivating over the out of market ratings for this one. Can Mike Holmgren pull a reverse Brett Favre and retire right now? I bet he would like to. Wanted to make one more run with a team that was just an odd game and a few shoddy calls away from a title. The only thing I am sure about the 49ers is that their QB will open an Irish bar one day and call it JT O'Sullivan's. Remember when titles came out of the NFC West? Who did Mike Holmgren have incriminating photos of to get moved to the NFC West? Has any one coach ever gotten more legs out of a single superbowl win? Mike Holmgren won one Superbowl with a 3 time MVP. If that's not underachieving, then I don't know what is. Does his sister in law have as much trouble getting a word in edge-wise at Thanksgiving dinner as she does on "the view"? Can the 12th man really be a full extra man against the 49ers with a disappointing team who are dropping like flies. I vote to rename the fans of the Seahawks the 11 1/2th man. I'm trade marking that, so screw you Pat Riley. 49ers are that bad, we'll lay the 7.
falcons +7 over BUCCANEERS
Did Gruden really bench Garcia for Griese? Griese's got more lives than a cat. This is officially incriminating photo accusation week. I think Brian's dad Bob is holding the photos this time. Tampa's offense has been subpar for as long as I can remember. Isn't Gruden an offensive guru? Who would have thought that the Devil Rays would be the most relevant team in Tampa in the middle of September. Yes, they will always be the Devil Rays, D-Rays or some incarnation thereof. You do not get to arbitrarily drop part of your name for no valid reason unless you are trying cloud the obviousness of your affiliations with Disney. This does not fit for the D-Rays. Let's just change em at our leisure for the heck of it. Chiefs are now the Chefs. Jazz are now the Missionaries. Hornets are the Jazz. Lakers are the Celebrities. T-Wolves are the Lakers. Jets are the Bretts. Giants are the Tyrees. And as long as we are dropping parts of names. Red Sox become just plain Sox, White Sox become just plain White. Reds become Red.
Alright enough of this foolishness. Gruden threw twice last week for every one run. 41 passes at 5.4 yards per pass and ran 20 times for 7.3 yars per carry. Starting RB averaged 9.1 yards per carry on 10 carries. Gruden was quoted as saying this week that he needs to get Graham the ball more. Really? You think so John. Falcons cover. Can't figure out if Turner is the real deal until he plays a team has not been Millenized. Now we'll know.
JETS -1 over Patriots
Prediction: 2008 NFL season's most overused phrase: "You can't hide your QB". Well guess what, you can't hide your QB. But can your "top" wide receiver hide from your new QB when he's Vince Young sad? I can't believe Laverneus continues to cry to the press over Chad's departure. Hey Laverneus, next time you run a deep crossing route, you might not get decapitated by the safety because you didn't have to wait for Chad's Forrest Gump's feather-like -ball to finally get there. This has to be a fabrication. It's got sneaky Mangini written all over. "Hey Coles, keep crying to the media that you miss Chad and that Brett just doesn't 'get you'". We'll even keep sitting you out of practice.
Brett still has a gun. Jets have two potentially elite receives who both like to go deep. A ton of quality on the O-line which should improve as it meshes. Defense I am not sold on yet, but being taught by Belichick, I am quite certain Mangini can confuse first time starter Matt Cassel. This is the game the Patriot haters have been waiting for 7 long years. They finally have to go out there without the best player on the planet and see how that changes things.
My take is that Belichick decided a few years ago when Bill Polian cried to the league about the Pats manhandling his receivers in another Foxboro playoff loss, that with the implentation of more and more favorable offensive slanted rules, that it would be possible to construct an unstoppable offense. No more defense wins championships, it's an antiquated notion. So he sets up to build it and finally put all the pieces in place last year. And guess what, they were unstoppable. So unstoppable, that over confidence and arrogance did not allow the Patriots to adjust their offensive attack in the Superbowl to shorter passes instead of attacking the Giant safeties as they had done in week 17. All they needed to do was realize that their offensive line was not infallible and that the Giants' D-line was in the zone, and make the necessary adjustment. It did not happen.
Nonetheless, simply stopping the Giants on their final drive and the Pats still have superbowl 4 and all the accolades that would have went with it. They did not have the defense to stop the Giants on the final drive and their defense is markedly worse this year. Rodney's another year older and has to lose a step at some point. The linebacking crew is old, cept for Mayo and Thomas. The corners are led by the man that was undressed by Plax to lose the Big Game. Samuel is gone. The D-Line is another year older and Richard Seymour is not the dominant force he was a few years ago. Remember the old Richard Seymour. What Brady was to the offense, he was to the defense. Not for some time now.
My point is this. Belichick quite properly realized that he could construct an unstoppable offense with Brady and that his defense only needed to be serviceable. Why do you think this offseason he spent big bucks to resign Moss and added nothing but drafties to the defense. He had chosen his plan of attack. The back up QB situation adds more fuel to the fire. Every dollar counts on every football team, especially on the Pats. Ask Adam or Deion or, well, you know the list. I think Bill got tired of paying a veteran QB behind a QB that had never been injured. Favre, Manning and Brady had all played their entire careers without missing a start before Brady was injured this season. Brady was barely touched all of last year. I think Bill finally decided that I'm done wasting money on the Huards, Fluties, and Testaverde's of the world. I just want some young guys to pay low short money. We're not winning a title without Brady anyways, and my offense is so stacked that anyone can keep it afloat for a few weeks.
This is why the Patriots are finished. This team was constructed as an unstoppable offensive force. Last year this defense was torched by AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller. And let's talk about the back up. Matt Cassel. The line I like is that this is first start since he reached his adult height. Did they have crowd noise issues in high school Matt? Add in some offensive line issues and I see nothing but dark days ahead for Mr. Cassel.
Talk about pressure though. The Jets have to win this game. Their fans haven't stopped grinning since Brady screamed in pain. A loss here will be psychologically devestating. This has to be the most interesting and meaningful week two game ever.
CARDINALS -6 over Dolphins
Jets/Dolphins was like a post divorce family reunion game. You knew it was going to be tight because of all the drama, emotions and intense familiarity. Dolphins show their true colors and lay an egg on this trip to the desert. The Dolphins are thread-bare on talent. This is the process in year one of the Parcells rebuild. Give him credit though, he can build em. It is hard to name a meaningful contributor on the Cowboys that was not a Parcells pick up.
BRONCOS +1.5 over Chargers
The Chargers never seem to be able to live up the sum of their parts. You can learn nothing from a game against the Raiders, but I believe Cutler has turned the corner and will be a top five QB with weapons. Broncos announce their return to AFC West legitimacy with huge victory here. Chargers need to be 0-2. They don't seem to get going until Norv Turner has been tied to chair and interrogated by Jack Bauer for 45 minutes.
Note from fantasy footballers to Mike. Can you please pick a frickin running back and stick with him. The starter had 7 carries last week. And Michael Pittman is getting goal line carries. I can't take it anymore.
BROWNS +6 over Steelers
Do we overreact to Steelers destroying Texans? Do we overreact to Browns getting killed by the Cowboys. Browns are desperate to avoid 0-2 start and chants for league's only healthy QB named Brady. Slow start was inevitable with D.A. and Braylon hardly playing in preseason. I thought Donte Stallworth would be a perfect 2 to Braylon Edwards' one, but he came up lame in the warm ups and we won't see him until the fall shows are in reruns based on his injury history. Browns find some rhythm and manage to cover. They have to make this thing close or this thing will get real messy real fast.
Ravens +4.5 over TEXANS
Pseudo Monday night game. Will the Texans ever be decent? If the Texans were the Cubans, I think Mario Williams would sneak onto the plane with the Ravens and claim sanctuary in Baltimore. I have more confidence in Joe Flacco than Matt Schaub. How many more times will teams pay an unproven back up tens of millions of dollars based on almost no evidence to be their starting quarterback. Matt Schaub is this generation's Scott Mitchell.
COWBOYS -7 over Eagles
Cowboys seem back on track to peak way too early, just as they have the last two years. That means they are on track to be in top form against Philly. Will be interesting to see the difference between the St. Louis and Dallas defenses. Especially since Dallas' end of year defense looked a lot like St. Louis' start of year defense. The Cowboys defense is one of those defenses that never seems to be the sum of its parts (another phrase of the week) either. Last year, two good corners, one good safety, above average linebackers, decent d-line, stud outside LB in Demarcus and they still got repeatedly shredded by the pass at the end of last year. Now, is it possible that getting Roy Williams out of pass coverage will make that much of a difference? In a word, yes. Roy Williams is, without exception, the single worst pass coverage defensive back ever. Even if he was near the guy, he always had the amazing ability to have his arms/hands melve through the ball like he should be a character on Heroes. This change is enough. The Cowboys are now complete on defense, especially with the addition of Mr. Jones (he has not first name as far as I am concerned). You see, when your one weakness is that you are susceptible to deep passes for TD's, that's a big weakness. Hole plugged, Brady gone, nothing stands in the Cowboys way except Wade Phillips. But he won't get in the way until January.
Cowboys 34-23.
Please forgive typos and errors, editor had the week off.
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