Week 3 Picks:

(Home teams in CAPS)

FALCONS -5.5 over Chiefs

Herm Edwards.  He’s still drawing a paycheck after getting smoked by the Raiders at home.  His star running back is starting to whine to try to get out of town.  He’s a 5 ½ point underdog to the Falcons.  I didn’t think the Falcons would be favored all year against anyone, and here they are a 5 ½ point favorite.  The Chiefs have all the makings of a team quitting on their coach.  Although with their talent level, it will be hard to tell the difference.  Until he beats a spread in which Tom Brady’s knee does not get julienned, I’m picking against him every week.  Here’s another exciting match up that Fox must be just down right giddy to have.  

Raiders +9 ½ over BILLS

This game has all the makings of a romp by the Bills. Second straight long trip by the Raiders.  Coach’s status up in the air.  Raiders got a road win last week.  Bills have started off 2-0 against two good opponents.  The Bills definitely do seem to be on their way up, but they did catch the Seahawks with no receivers and a beat up QB while the Jaguars had the five stooges manning the offensive line.  No doubt this is a good team.  No doubt they win this game at home.  Seems like a no brainer Bills win this by two TD’s.  This is why it’s so hard to pick against the spread and why the house always wins.  Every rational bone in my body says Bills by 3 TD’s.  Beating the spread is simple.  You just gotta know which games to throw all logic and reason out the window.  This is one of those games.  Raiders get under the number with a late score.

Texans +5 over TITANS

Can I just pick against the Titans here because they have the league’s most boring team ever since Steve McNair turned into a geriatric overnight?  Fiery coach, solid defense, good running game.  I think I just find it hard to cheer for a team who had one of their defensive leaders do his try out for “Dancing with the Stars” on Andre Gurode’s unhelmeted (it’s a word, look it up, really) head.  I know this was a few years back but it was one of the most stunning acts ever perpetrated on a football field.  It has been reported that Albert Haynesworth ripped off Gurode’s helmet and then tried to stomp on his head with his spikes.  He missed the first time.  But the second stomp was the charm, just missing Gurode’s eye and potentially ending his career, leading to 30 stitches.  Haynesworth received the NFL’s longest suspension for an on field incident, 5 games.  

Two years have passed, let it go, you say?  If this was a “name” player, would we ever have heard the end of this?  Strahan?  Seymour?  The “Headhunter”, as he shall be known from here on out, greatly benefitted from playing in a small market on a team that very few out of towners follow.  Texans use the extra energy they did not expend in last week’s hurricane bye to pull the upset.  

Bengals +13.5 over GIANTS

How did the Giants manage such an easy schedule to start the season?  They open with the Redskins and Jim Zorn with 3/5 of his offense installed.  Then they travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams who are so awful everyone involved is chirping.  And now they get the Bungles at home.  Wow, what a nice way to ease into the season.  Division rivals Cowboys and Eagles have not only played each other, but play Green Bay and Pittsburgh this weekend.  After what they did last year, it has to be difficult for the Giants to get up week after week to play the sister’s of the poor.  This game has letdown written all over it.  Bengals are playing for their season, their pride and dignity.  They finally put some points on the board this week.  

Cardinals +3 over REDSKINS

Back in the old days, the Cardinals were in the NFC East with the Cowboys, Redskins, Giants and Eagles.  Now, their division rivals are St. Louis, San Fran and Seattle.  It’s like the NL West.  The Cards are a quiet 2-0 after beating San Fran and Miami.  No one respects them.  No one fears them.  This is their chance to get respect against a supposedly worthy opponent.  Cards are ranked 7th in overall defense.  A result of their opponents or their quality?  Probably a bit of both.  Zorny’s crew has had no offensive production against a pass defense ranked higher than 30.  Cardinals seize the opportunity for respect here and finally win a big road game.

PATRIOTS -12.5 over Dolphins

Miami’s defense was disemboweled before a regional television audience of thousands by the Cardinals one week ago.  Bill knows that he is going to have to take the shackles off Cassel at some point if his team are going to be able to win big games.  I’m not saying the Pats are going to need to score 52 points to win later in the season.  But there will come a time when they give up some points and Cassel will need to respond with second half scores.  Bill’s got to find out what he has in Cassel.  This is the perfect opportunity against Miami’s junior varsity entry this year.  Randy Moss fantasy owners will have their coming out party.  

We’re going to have to do the abridged version for the rest.  Damn editors and their deadlines.  

BEARS -3 over Bucs

Rams +9.5 over SEAHAWKS

49ERS -4 over Lions Does Matt Millen have to drive around town in a bullet proof Pope-mobile?

BRONCOS -5.5 over Saints Broncos are for real.  

EAGLES -3.5 over Steelers

The battle for Pennsylvania has PA as more than just an presidential election battleground state.  It’s great to see McNabb healthy again, but he needs to take it easy.  Just go on out of bounds or do the ol’ hook slide.  You don’t need to try to batter people for extra yards, Marion Barber style.  With Brady gone, the Colts in neutral, and the Chargers going backwards, this may be the NFC’s year.  This is an excellent early measuring stick.  AFC or NFC?  Both teams clearly in the discussion for top of their respective conferences.  Winner of this battle will give their conference the early lead in the clubhouse for supremacy.  Ben’s not 100%.  The Eagles are percolating espresso style on offense.  And the defense doesn’t have to face T.O., Witten and Barber.  Steelers do not have the offensive weapons the Cowboys do.  Steelers will not be able to slow McNabb down enough.  Pendulum swings the NFC’s way for first time in quite a while.  

COLTS -5 over Jaguars

Browns +2.5 over RAVENS

Browns are in critical condition and the life support is failing.  Derek Anderson has 18 TD passes in his last 16 games.  Did that one 6 TD game against the Bengals inflate his value?  Is D.A. the real deal or a flash in the pan?  Browns were out of sync in week one against the high flying Cowboys after preseason injuries and had to play during the filming of Winnie the Pooh’s “it’s a blustery day” in week 2.  Browns will find some points this week or Brady Quinn will be starting real soon.

Cowboys -3 over PACKERS

Cowboys caught a huge break, literally, with Roy Williams breaking his elbow.  This will sure up the pass defense.  And we finally get to see the anointed one, the new golden boy, Aaron Rodgers against a grown up pass defense.  No historically horrendous Lions’ or Vikes’ pass defense here.  I see a big DeMarcus Ware blind side sack leading to a fumble and touchdown, while Tony Kornheiser mutters “Brett Favre” over and over again in the corner of a dingy hotel room.  

Jets +9 overs CHARGERS

Tomlinson is starting to be one of those guys who is nicked up all the time.  It’s hard to get healthy moving forward when your job is being a human target.  This is an interesting game for the Jets.  All of New York think Magini is way too conservative with his play calling.  The Jets have talent and that talent needs time to gel.  Cotchery and Coles are two talented wide outs.  Thomas Jones in an above average running back and the O-line has some nice pieces that will need time to gel.  D’Brickashaw’s public humiliation at the hands of Richard Seymour provides another interesting back story here.  Does he recover?  Will he learn from this?  Or was his spirit broken?  I think Mangini picks up the pieces and the Jets put it all together this week.  SHOCKER OF THE WEEK.  Jets pull the upset and Norv Turner puts his resume back up on Monster.com.

Record on the season: 7-7-1 (week one not picked)