Sunday, September 28, 2008

Week 4 Picks: The Sky is Falling

31 wins out 115 games played.  You know it, you lived it, you loved it (except in Detroit), ladies and gentleman the Matt Millen era.  "We're fine. In the world's view, this may look like failure. It's been a hard road, footballwise, but we've gotten a lot of eternal blessings. We'll move forward. I told him, 'You're out of football prison now' and we have a greater purpose."

These immortal words from Mrs. Matt Millen.  I am guessing the lots of eternal blessings she mentions must be the countless millions of dollars Matt Millen took from the Ford company.  Remember, he signed for $5 million per year at the beginning and had an extension a few years back.  Somewhere between $35 million and $50 million is what we can safely assume he earned.   He could at least donate a few million or so to provide free mental health care for tortured Lions fans.  Well, it's at least nice to see that Ford bring the same insight to running their football team as they do to their business.  It's remarkable how closely Ford's decline has mirrored the Lions performance during the Millen era.  Maybe these guys shouldn't be in charge of anything more complicated than a lemonade stand.  

Hectic week and family obligations have boxed me in to writing this week's edition last minute.  Which is unfortunate because there is so much to cover.  Devil Rays division winners.  They will always be the Devil Rays to me.  I don't get the whole "Rays" thing.  Is it still a sting ray?  Or is it a ray of light?  Their jerseys have a funky little sparkly thing.  Who knows.  Well, you know what they say, you can keep Ray away from the Devil, but you can't take the Devil out of the Rays.  They do say that, really.  In one of the more pathetic "we've never been here and don't know what the heck we're doing" moments, the Devil Rays pleaded for national assistance to come up with someone to throw out the first pitch.  I can come up with five off the top of my head.  Fred McGriff, Wade Boggs, the guy from the Dennis Quaid movie, Jon Gruden, Dexter Jackson, some guy from the Lightning Stanley Cup winning team.  How bout gold medal star Dwayne Wade.  Miami's close enough.  What NBA team do we think Tampa Bay cheers for?  Fine, go with Dwight Howard.  I like Wade though.  D-Wade.  D-Rays.  It works.  D-Rays are out in 3 or 4 games.  If you can't pick a first pitch thrower-outter, and you need to nationally cry about it, you don't belong there and you will prove so in the playoffs.

Manny is an NL MVP candidate with 53 games played.  Not saying he's going to win, but he'll be in the top five in voting.  Manny is far from blameless, but with his talent and production in LA, doesn't there have to be some tiny little part of the blame pie put on Terry and Theo?  Not half, not even a third.  But some tiny little slice?  With three front line pitchers and Manny mashing, wouldn't the Sox have finished ahead of the Devil Rays and avoided the Angels in the first round?  Wouldn't they be a sure fire World Series favorite, and not an underdog to the Angels who went 8-1 against them this year?  Maybe nothing would have worked.  But what they did, certainly didn't.  Manny threw a fit practically every year around the all-star break.  You just shake your head, laugh it off and know that Manny will forget it happened within a week and go back to mashing the ball.  It happened time and time again.  All I'm saying is this ownership group has been trying to get rid of Manny ever since they took over this team.  They tried repeatedly.  How can this fact not be part of the equation?  You didn't want him, you never wanted him, he didn't fit in your neat little box of what a star player should be.  It's a hell of a long shot, but if Manny's Dodgers beat the Sox in the Series, don't we have to point a finger at ownership/management for not being able to find a way to co-exist with Manny?  Isn't it their job to "make it work" Tim Gunn style.  I had originally written Peter Gunn, but my wife corrected me.  

Just picks this week after last week's 6-9.  Home teams in CAPS.

Broncos -9.5 over CHIEFS
Browns +3.5 over BENGALS  
Texans +7 over JAGUARS
JETS -1 over Cardinals
SAINTS -5 over 49ers
Falcons +6.5 over PANTHERS
Vikings +3 over TITANS (this week's anti logic pick)
Packers -1 over BUCS
Bills -8 over RAMS 
RAIDERS -7.5 over Chargers (see Vikings pick)
COWBOYS -11 over Redskins (too good too early, the Wade Phillips era)
Egales -3 over BEARS
Ravens +5.5 over STEELERS

13-16-1 on the season.  

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Week 3 Picks:

(Home teams in CAPS)

FALCONS -5.5 over Chiefs

Herm Edwards.  He’s still drawing a paycheck after getting smoked by the Raiders at home.  His star running back is starting to whine to try to get out of town.  He’s a 5 ½ point underdog to the Falcons.  I didn’t think the Falcons would be favored all year against anyone, and here they are a 5 ½ point favorite.  The Chiefs have all the makings of a team quitting on their coach.  Although with their talent level, it will be hard to tell the difference.  Until he beats a spread in which Tom Brady’s knee does not get julienned, I’m picking against him every week.  Here’s another exciting match up that Fox must be just down right giddy to have.  

Raiders +9 ½ over BILLS

This game has all the makings of a romp by the Bills. Second straight long trip by the Raiders.  Coach’s status up in the air.  Raiders got a road win last week.  Bills have started off 2-0 against two good opponents.  The Bills definitely do seem to be on their way up, but they did catch the Seahawks with no receivers and a beat up QB while the Jaguars had the five stooges manning the offensive line.  No doubt this is a good team.  No doubt they win this game at home.  Seems like a no brainer Bills win this by two TD’s.  This is why it’s so hard to pick against the spread and why the house always wins.  Every rational bone in my body says Bills by 3 TD’s.  Beating the spread is simple.  You just gotta know which games to throw all logic and reason out the window.  This is one of those games.  Raiders get under the number with a late score.

Texans +5 over TITANS

Can I just pick against the Titans here because they have the league’s most boring team ever since Steve McNair turned into a geriatric overnight?  Fiery coach, solid defense, good running game.  I think I just find it hard to cheer for a team who had one of their defensive leaders do his try out for “Dancing with the Stars” on Andre Gurode’s unhelmeted (it’s a word, look it up, really) head.  I know this was a few years back but it was one of the most stunning acts ever perpetrated on a football field.  It has been reported that Albert Haynesworth ripped off Gurode’s helmet and then tried to stomp on his head with his spikes.  He missed the first time.  But the second stomp was the charm, just missing Gurode’s eye and potentially ending his career, leading to 30 stitches.  Haynesworth received the NFL’s longest suspension for an on field incident, 5 games.  

Two years have passed, let it go, you say?  If this was a “name” player, would we ever have heard the end of this?  Strahan?  Seymour?  The “Headhunter”, as he shall be known from here on out, greatly benefitted from playing in a small market on a team that very few out of towners follow.  Texans use the extra energy they did not expend in last week’s hurricane bye to pull the upset.  

Bengals +13.5 over GIANTS

How did the Giants manage such an easy schedule to start the season?  They open with the Redskins and Jim Zorn with 3/5 of his offense installed.  Then they travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams who are so awful everyone involved is chirping.  And now they get the Bungles at home.  Wow, what a nice way to ease into the season.  Division rivals Cowboys and Eagles have not only played each other, but play Green Bay and Pittsburgh this weekend.  After what they did last year, it has to be difficult for the Giants to get up week after week to play the sister’s of the poor.  This game has letdown written all over it.  Bengals are playing for their season, their pride and dignity.  They finally put some points on the board this week.  

Cardinals +3 over REDSKINS

Back in the old days, the Cardinals were in the NFC East with the Cowboys, Redskins, Giants and Eagles.  Now, their division rivals are St. Louis, San Fran and Seattle.  It’s like the NL West.  The Cards are a quiet 2-0 after beating San Fran and Miami.  No one respects them.  No one fears them.  This is their chance to get respect against a supposedly worthy opponent.  Cards are ranked 7th in overall defense.  A result of their opponents or their quality?  Probably a bit of both.  Zorny’s crew has had no offensive production against a pass defense ranked higher than 30.  Cardinals seize the opportunity for respect here and finally win a big road game.

PATRIOTS -12.5 over Dolphins

Miami’s defense was disemboweled before a regional television audience of thousands by the Cardinals one week ago.  Bill knows that he is going to have to take the shackles off Cassel at some point if his team are going to be able to win big games.  I’m not saying the Pats are going to need to score 52 points to win later in the season.  But there will come a time when they give up some points and Cassel will need to respond with second half scores.  Bill’s got to find out what he has in Cassel.  This is the perfect opportunity against Miami’s junior varsity entry this year.  Randy Moss fantasy owners will have their coming out party.  

We’re going to have to do the abridged version for the rest.  Damn editors and their deadlines.  

BEARS -3 over Bucs

Rams +9.5 over SEAHAWKS

49ERS -4 over Lions Does Matt Millen have to drive around town in a bullet proof Pope-mobile?

BRONCOS -5.5 over Saints Broncos are for real.  

EAGLES -3.5 over Steelers

The battle for Pennsylvania has PA as more than just an presidential election battleground state.  It’s great to see McNabb healthy again, but he needs to take it easy.  Just go on out of bounds or do the ol’ hook slide.  You don’t need to try to batter people for extra yards, Marion Barber style.  With Brady gone, the Colts in neutral, and the Chargers going backwards, this may be the NFC’s year.  This is an excellent early measuring stick.  AFC or NFC?  Both teams clearly in the discussion for top of their respective conferences.  Winner of this battle will give their conference the early lead in the clubhouse for supremacy.  Ben’s not 100%.  The Eagles are percolating espresso style on offense.  And the defense doesn’t have to face T.O., Witten and Barber.  Steelers do not have the offensive weapons the Cowboys do.  Steelers will not be able to slow McNabb down enough.  Pendulum swings the NFC’s way for first time in quite a while.  

COLTS -5 over Jaguars

Browns +2.5 over RAVENS

Browns are in critical condition and the life support is failing.  Derek Anderson has 18 TD passes in his last 16 games.  Did that one 6 TD game against the Bengals inflate his value?  Is D.A. the real deal or a flash in the pan?  Browns were out of sync in week one against the high flying Cowboys after preseason injuries and had to play during the filming of Winnie the Pooh’s “it’s a blustery day” in week 2.  Browns will find some points this week or Brady Quinn will be starting real soon.

Cowboys -3 over PACKERS

Cowboys caught a huge break, literally, with Roy Williams breaking his elbow.  This will sure up the pass defense.  And we finally get to see the anointed one, the new golden boy, Aaron Rodgers against a grown up pass defense.  No historically horrendous Lions’ or Vikes’ pass defense here.  I see a big DeMarcus Ware blind side sack leading to a fumble and touchdown, while Tony Kornheiser mutters “Brett Favre” over and over again in the corner of a dingy hotel room.  

Jets +9 overs CHARGERS

Tomlinson is starting to be one of those guys who is nicked up all the time.  It’s hard to get healthy moving forward when your job is being a human target.  This is an interesting game for the Jets.  All of New York think Magini is way too conservative with his play calling.  The Jets have talent and that talent needs time to gel.  Cotchery and Coles are two talented wide outs.  Thomas Jones in an above average running back and the O-line has some nice pieces that will need time to gel.  D’Brickashaw’s public humiliation at the hands of Richard Seymour provides another interesting back story here.  Does he recover?  Will he learn from this?  Or was his spirit broken?  I think Mangini picks up the pieces and the Jets put it all together this week.  SHOCKER OF THE WEEK.  Jets pull the upset and Norv Turner puts his resume back up on Monster.com.

Record on the season: 7-7-1 (week one not picked)

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Congratulations Minnesota Vikings Fans

Tavaris Jackson's reign of terror has finally ended.  Brad Childress finally decided to stop banging his head (and the heads of all Viking fans) against the proverbial brick wall, and make a rational decision by benching one of the worst starting QB's the league has ever seen.  Since we won't have T-Jack to kick around anymore, let's all take a moment to lament what we will be missing. 16 NFL starts for T-Jack resulted in the following:

12 Touchdown passes
17 Interceptions
57.1% completion percentage
6.21 yards per attempt
68.5 QB rating

In his 16 starts, T-Jack threw for more than 200 yards exactly three times, and never once for 250 yards. He managed these staggering achievements with an excellent offensive line and the NFL's best running back.  Sorry Tomlinson, but you've been supplanted until you get back to your old ways.  

Now I've lost my favorite NFL starting QB to rip to shreds.  Is this going to make T-Jack a special kind of sad?  What I like to call "Vince Young sad".  I would bet that T-Jack had a little chat with his mommy after the whole Vince Young debacle, gently suggesting she pull a Sammy Sosa should the media ever come knocking on her door.  

How infuriating must it be to be Daunte Culpepper?  Joe Flacco, Brodie Croyle, Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, JaMarcus Russell, and Tyler Thigpen will all have made starts by this weekend’s action.  And Culpepper can't get in for a tryout anywhere.  I feel for you buddy.  It just ain't right.  Perhaps you should hire an agent.  Perhaps someone who is not you would have better luck marketing your services.  

Odds that Gus Frerotte celebrated his ascension to starting QB by head butting something solid:15-1.  

We won't have Tavaris Jackson to kick around anymore and I for one am really going to miss him.  A toast to T-Jack, we hardly knew ya, kid.  

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Week 2 Recap, apologies and adulation:

The fun of putting your two cents out there is being ready to chow down on some chicken fried crow steak on Tuesdays.  After a 7-7-1 week, (we’ll always take anything at or above .500) let’s start with our list of apologies.  I believe the alcoholics would call this step 9.  

1. Richard Seymour:

If only anyone read my blog, I could take credit for firing up Richard Seymour who was the difference in the Pats-Jets game.  Unfortunately, no one does, so I cannot.  This was the old Richard Seymour, the game changer, the difference maker, the best player on the field.  Getting into the backfield whenever he wanted, disrupting almost every single significant play.  Single handedly breaking the hearts of Thomas Jones’ fantasy owners nationwide.  If you can’t get in from the 3 yard line on 3 straight carries, you might as well go home.  Good thing the Jets were already there.  
D’Brickashaw Ferguson must still be curled up in a corner quivering and sucking his thumb.  This is supposed to be the Jets’ stud left tackle. Perhaps a little more seasoning next to Mr. Faneca and the “Brick” will not have his jock handed to him in such a public and humiliating manner.  Where oh where is the relevant analysis from CBS?  I do not believe they mentioned Brick’s name once while Richard Seymour drank his milkshake Daniel Day-Lewis style time and time again.  I think Paul Dano would have blocked better.  Richard Seymour dominated and man-handled the Brick so thoroughly, it made me wonder if Belichick had been throwing around the phrase “horse’sh@#” in describing him, as he had in years past firing his team up to dominate the Bills.   
Where has this Richard Seymour been?  I haven’t seen him, have you?  I think he’s got a little Usain Bolt in him.  Just fast enough, or in this case, hard enough to win, no more.  Gonna leave everything in the tank that I can, just in case I need it later.  Not a bad strategy.  
Patriots - 1.  Doubter nation - 0.  


2. Jim Zorn:

Sorry Zorny.  Great bounce back from week one, maybe this offense isn’t doomed.  You know what, I can’t do it.  I rescind my retraction (maybe I should run for office).  I’m not sold on Zorny until I see more.  Show me some offense against someone who are not the Saints.  30th in pass defense last year and 28th so far this year.  I would say this ain’t your father’s Saints’ pass defense, but that really doesn’t work in this situation.  


Quick Hits:

-If the Raiders are awful, what does that make the Chiefs?  Does Herm Edwards feel just a little bit guilty cashing his check each week?  You weren’t even in the game against a team that threw for 55 yards passing.  Against a team whose head coach isn’t speaking to either his owner or defense coordinator.  Who’s gonna get that first win out of the three Missouri teams (don’t forget Detroit has been accepted as part of Missouri for this football season only)? I was going to look at their schedules but it was just too painful.

-The Cowboys are off and running, starting 2-0 against the Browns and Eagles.  So what if they didn’t bring their defense to Dallas for the Monday Nighter.  So what if their coach “didn’t see it that way” when asked at half time about the Eagles moving up and down the field.  So what if their coach celebrates 1st quarter touchdowns like a contestant winning a beauty pageant on speed.  So what if they have 21 penalties for 190 yards in the first two games.  Could someone please explain to the Cowboys that the face mask rule is still in effect and now it is always going to be a 15 yarder.  

The most talented team in the league is the most undisciplined.  And if the coaches don’t care, or don’t see it as a problem, why is there any expectation that the problem will be fixed?  Think it doesn’t matter?  Really?  In last year’s 21-17 playoff loss to the Giants, the Cowboys out-gained the Giants 336 to 230.  Penalties: Giants: 3.  Cowboys: 11.  This was a tight game and the difference was penalties.  Not Romo or Jessica or Cabo, but penalties.  Penalties is the most direct result of coaching and discipline.  The penalties are a virus and they will eventually become fatal if not rectified.  But if the coach isn’t concerned...

-With Roy Williams out for a few weeks the Cowboys will have their best defensive passing games of the year.  Roy Williams will not start another game in his NFL career.  You heard it here first.  It’s over.  I think Roy thought if he changed his number, we wouldn’t remember him getting lit up like Times Square time and time again last year on every deep pass.  

-Has anyone benefitted more from the scheduling of two cupcakes at the start of their season, than Aaron Rodgers?  With all due respect to the Vikings not named Tavaris, the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses over the past few years.  The Lions, well, they’re the Lions.  Possibly the most untalented front seven of this decade.  For those of you keeping track, last year’s pass defense rankings: Vikings: dead last.  Lions: second to dead last.  Rodgers may very well be the real deal, I’m just not ready to anoint him until we see some production against a team with a defense that does not qualify as just plain offensive.  

This week’s Stupid Hall of Fame Nominees.

-DeSean Jackson.  First ever guy in NFL history to throw the ball away before scoring.  You could give a pass if he didn’t have a history of doing this.  Is DeSean Jackson the most impatient man in the world?  Has he been treated for ADHD?  Did he play too many video games as a child?  Just wait that sliver of a second and then celebrate Ocho Cinco style.  I dread the waitress serving DeSean if his ticket gets lost by the kitchen, watch out. 

-Shawne Merriman.  What conceivable reason could there be for Shawne to disregard the advice of the hundreds of years of expertise and experience of the doctors telling him his knee needed surgery.  You stupid doctors, you don’t know what you’re talking about, I’ll just play through it.  One game later, surgery, out for the year.  Couldn’t see that one coming.  I believe the degree he didn’t earn from Maryland was a medical degree.

-Ed Hochuli.  Did all the steroids we always suspected him of doing when he was pumped up like Arnold rot his brain?  Why would he blow the whistle and call a fumble an incompletion?  Why has it taken until now for the NFL to consider looking at the inadvertent whistle rule?  If this was the NBA, someone would scream conspiracy.  Ed’s been an excellent ref for a long time, but this was a cataclysmic, possible season altering brain fart.  Tell the Chargers’ fans that he’s one of the best refs and it was a lone mistake if they miss the playoffs by one game in Bradyless AFC.  Stupid isn't really the word for this, but I had no other section.  Sorry, Ed.  

 

Friday, September 12, 2008

Week 2 Pics

(Home teams in Caps)

packers -3 over LIONS

Strong desire to pick against Rodgers who is getting way too much praise for throwing under 180 yards and one TD against a historically bad pass defense. Packers easily could have lost that game if Tavaris "pending disaster" Jackson had one more drive in him. But the Lions are a special breed of bad. After getting slaughtered by the Falcons, no really, the Falcons, they're taking bad to a whole new level. They're "Millen" bad. 31-82. Lions under Matt Millen. Apparently only an 0-16 will end his tenure. Let's all hope for that for Lions' fans sake. I also want to petition the NFL to move the Lions to somewhere in Missouri, because that's apparently where incompetent ownership, horrific coaching and depressed fans live. That's the "Show Me" state spirit. That's it, it's official, Detroit is in Missouri as far as I am concerned for the rest of the season. Missouri win over/under between the three teams is now up to 10. I'm still betting the under.

raiders +3.5 over CHIEFS

Two horrendous teams battle for inferiority. Can't you just see Lane and Herm throwing back a couple at some dive bar after a 6-6 tie. "I'm rethinking the whole 'play to win the game thing'. This tie thing feels pretty good. Now, we play not to lose the game. With my coaching that's the best we can hope for anways. Hey, where'd Lane go?" Poor Lane, thrown out of a KC bar because they didn't accept his out of state ID as legitimate. Patriots trade a 4th rounder for Randy Moss. Chiefs trade a 4th round pick for Herm. Maybe they can trade for Matt Millen next year.

RAMS +8 over giants

Rams may be just awful, awful, awful, but they're getting 8 points at home. Giants have got to be flat for this one after waiting for their coronation for 7 months. Giants still have a lot to prove. They remind me of the Pats after first Superbowl when the eviscerated the Steelers in the opener, despite being underdogs. Only difference, 02 Patriots were vastly superior to their 01 counterparts. 07 Giants would be a 6 point favorite on a neutral field over the 08 Giants incarnation. Late TD beats the number for the Rams. Stephen Jackson needs some fantasy points or he's going to trade himself in fantasy leagues. He'll get em late when it's over.

colts -2 over VIKINGS

I don't care how bad the Colts looked in their season and new barn opener. The Vikings pass defense is historically bad. And the Colts are sure to improve their offensive rhythm with time. Tavaris Jackson is the Matt Millen (the executive anyway) of QB's, his track record is just not as long. This pass defense is horrendous and it has been for sometime, look it up. 10/30/06. Brady scorches Vikes for 372 yards and 4 TD's with his top two wide receivers, Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel going for 12 and 167 with a TD. Corey Dillon had a 27 yard catch, even Chad Jackson caught something non-contagious. What, you may be wondering, is the relevance of this nearly two year old game? The Vikes pass defense was bad then, and it's worserer (yes it needed a new word) now. AP may go for 160+ but Peyton goes for 300+ and 3 TD's.

titans +1 over Bengals

Do you feel for Marvin Lewis for going with felon after felon, low character guys, or do you blame the guys themselves for showing their true colors? Now, I know Marvin did not pick up all these guys himself, but he's on the hook for a lot of them. I don't think there's a coach in the league the Marvin would not trade places with in a second. Carson Palmer has never been the same since he blew out his knee, Patriots nation. Marvin Lewis will be 10 days away from his 50th birthday on Sunday. To use some movie trailer jargon, "every man has his breaking point." How surprised would we be to read in the news that Marvin Lewis flipped out with some wild criminal act after two more losses and 3 more team arrests. I would give him a "get out of jail free" card. Actually scratch that, he decided to add character issue guy after character issue guy, and look what it has gotten him. We reap what we sow, Marvin.

Side note: How hard is it to understand that if you are the mother of a professional athlete, particularly a football player, never tell the media how your kid's feelings are hurt and the fans are being mean to him. Do I really have to say this? You think with the multi-million dollar contracts, the NFL could give out a little handbook for them to give to their mothers, "10 things not to say".

saints even over REDSKINS

Jim Zorn did not install a no huddle offense during camp or preseason. I'm assuming he knew that his west coast passing offense would be so stellar they would never need it. I will pick against the Skins every week until they are playing on a level field with the rest of the league. I can't get over this. He's an offensive specialist. He did not change the running game. What the heck did he do with his team all summer? Shockey's going to a be a monster with the Saints running low on receivers. Shouldn't David Patten start to age at some point? He was old when the Pats won their first superbowl. If I don't capitalize it will I get a letter from Goodell? Jason Campbell is going to need a therapist soon. Maybe he can go with Marvin Lewis and get a group rate.

bears +3 over PANTHERS

I have no strong feeling on this game. Both teams overachieved in week one, someone is due to flounder. Panthers have more to lose at home, so I pick them to lose. Bears will ride the energy from the "yeehaa, Rex ain't our QB no more" sentiment to a division title. If one of your star players is going to punch out a teammate, how can the "ragin' cajun" not be involved somehow, it just seems wrong. Does Steven Smith have to hear what a**hole he is on every play from trash talking defenders?

bills + 5.5 over JAGUARS

The Jags were one of those trendy picks this year. Now, the Bills are up and comers, improving defense, decent O-line, excellent running back, contemplative and improving QB, good skill position guys. Are they getting too much credit for destroying Seattle, not with this line apparently. Does Seattle ever play well when their trip is more than 2000 miles? I have not the resources for that answer, but my suspicion is not bloody likely. This game is a total toss up as far as I can tell. I go with the Bills because they, beyond any other team, have the "no one believes in us" sentiment in their favor and are getting a nice 5.5 points. Jets and Pats fight for AFC East supremacy this week. That's been the story right? You know the Bills are playing this angle up big time. Bills ride it to victory, but I feel better with those points.

SEAHAWKS -7 over 49ers

Fox must be salivating over the out of market ratings for this one. Can Mike Holmgren pull a reverse Brett Favre and retire right now? I bet he would like to. Wanted to make one more run with a team that was just an odd game and a few shoddy calls away from a title. The only thing I am sure about the 49ers is that their QB will open an Irish bar one day and call it JT O'Sullivan's. Remember when titles came out of the NFC West? Who did Mike Holmgren have incriminating photos of to get moved to the NFC West? Has any one coach ever gotten more legs out of a single superbowl win? Mike Holmgren won one Superbowl with a 3 time MVP. If that's not underachieving, then I don't know what is. Does his sister in law have as much trouble getting a word in edge-wise at Thanksgiving dinner as she does on "the view"? Can the 12th man really be a full extra man against the 49ers with a disappointing team who are dropping like flies. I vote to rename the fans of the Seahawks the 11 1/2th man. I'm trade marking that, so screw you Pat Riley. 49ers are that bad, we'll lay the 7.

falcons +7 over BUCCANEERS

Did Gruden really bench Garcia for Griese? Griese's got more lives than a cat. This is officially incriminating photo accusation week. I think Brian's dad Bob is holding the photos this time. Tampa's offense has been subpar for as long as I can remember. Isn't Gruden an offensive guru? Who would have thought that the Devil Rays would be the most relevant team in Tampa in the middle of September. Yes, they will always be the Devil Rays, D-Rays or some incarnation thereof. You do not get to arbitrarily drop part of your name for no valid reason unless you are trying cloud the obviousness of your affiliations with Disney. This does not fit for the D-Rays. Let's just change em at our leisure for the heck of it. Chiefs are now the Chefs. Jazz are now the Missionaries. Hornets are the Jazz. Lakers are the Celebrities. T-Wolves are the Lakers. Jets are the Bretts. Giants are the Tyrees. And as long as we are dropping parts of names. Red Sox become just plain Sox, White Sox become just plain White. Reds become Red.

Alright enough of this foolishness. Gruden threw twice last week for every one run. 41 passes at 5.4 yards per pass and ran 20 times for 7.3 yars per carry. Starting RB averaged 9.1 yards per carry on 10 carries. Gruden was quoted as saying this week that he needs to get Graham the ball more. Really? You think so John. Falcons cover. Can't figure out if Turner is the real deal until he plays a team has not been Millenized. Now we'll know.

JETS -1 over Patriots

Prediction: 2008 NFL season's most overused phrase: "You can't hide your QB". Well guess what, you can't hide your QB. But can your "top" wide receiver hide from your new QB when he's Vince Young sad? I can't believe Laverneus continues to cry to the press over Chad's departure. Hey Laverneus, next time you run a deep crossing route, you might not get decapitated by the safety because you didn't have to wait for Chad's Forrest Gump's feather-like -ball to finally get there. This has to be a fabrication. It's got sneaky Mangini written all over. "Hey Coles, keep crying to the media that you miss Chad and that Brett just doesn't 'get you'". We'll even keep sitting you out of practice.

Brett still has a gun. Jets have two potentially elite receives who both like to go deep. A ton of quality on the O-line which should improve as it meshes. Defense I am not sold on yet, but being taught by Belichick, I am quite certain Mangini can confuse first time starter Matt Cassel. This is the game the Patriot haters have been waiting for 7 long years. They finally have to go out there without the best player on the planet and see how that changes things.

My take is that Belichick decided a few years ago when Bill Polian cried to the league about the Pats manhandling his receivers in another Foxboro playoff loss, that with the implentation of more and more favorable offensive slanted rules, that it would be possible to construct an unstoppable offense. No more defense wins championships, it's an antiquated notion. So he sets up to build it and finally put all the pieces in place last year. And guess what, they were unstoppable. So unstoppable, that over confidence and arrogance did not allow the Patriots to adjust their offensive attack in the Superbowl to shorter passes instead of attacking the Giant safeties as they had done in week 17. All they needed to do was realize that their offensive line was not infallible and that the Giants' D-line was in the zone, and make the necessary adjustment. It did not happen.

Nonetheless, simply stopping the Giants on their final drive and the Pats still have superbowl 4 and all the accolades that would have went with it. They did not have the defense to stop the Giants on the final drive and their defense is markedly worse this year. Rodney's another year older and has to lose a step at some point. The linebacking crew is old, cept for Mayo and Thomas. The corners are led by the man that was undressed by Plax to lose the Big Game. Samuel is gone. The D-Line is another year older and Richard Seymour is not the dominant force he was a few years ago. Remember the old Richard Seymour. What Brady was to the offense, he was to the defense. Not for some time now.

My point is this. Belichick quite properly realized that he could construct an unstoppable offense with Brady and that his defense only needed to be serviceable. Why do you think this offseason he spent big bucks to resign Moss and added nothing but drafties to the defense. He had chosen his plan of attack. The back up QB situation adds more fuel to the fire. Every dollar counts on every football team, especially on the Pats. Ask Adam or Deion or, well, you know the list. I think Bill got tired of paying a veteran QB behind a QB that had never been injured. Favre, Manning and Brady had all played their entire careers without missing a start before Brady was injured this season. Brady was barely touched all of last year. I think Bill finally decided that I'm done wasting money on the Huards, Fluties, and Testaverde's of the world. I just want some young guys to pay low short money. We're not winning a title without Brady anyways, and my offense is so stacked that anyone can keep it afloat for a few weeks.

This is why the Patriots are finished. This team was constructed as an unstoppable offensive force. Last year this defense was torched by AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller. And let's talk about the back up. Matt Cassel. The line I like is that this is first start since he reached his adult height. Did they have crowd noise issues in high school Matt? Add in some offensive line issues and I see nothing but dark days ahead for Mr. Cassel.

Talk about pressure though. The Jets have to win this game. Their fans haven't stopped grinning since Brady screamed in pain. A loss here will be psychologically devestating. This has to be the most interesting and meaningful week two game ever.

CARDINALS -6 over Dolphins

Jets/Dolphins was like a post divorce family reunion game. You knew it was going to be tight because of all the drama, emotions and intense familiarity. Dolphins show their true colors and lay an egg on this trip to the desert. The Dolphins are thread-bare on talent. This is the process in year one of the Parcells rebuild. Give him credit though, he can build em. It is hard to name a meaningful contributor on the Cowboys that was not a Parcells pick up.

BRONCOS +1.5 over Chargers

The Chargers never seem to be able to live up the sum of their parts. You can learn nothing from a game against the Raiders, but I believe Cutler has turned the corner and will be a top five QB with weapons. Broncos announce their return to AFC West legitimacy with huge victory here. Chargers need to be 0-2. They don't seem to get going until Norv Turner has been tied to chair and interrogated by Jack Bauer for 45 minutes.

Note from fantasy footballers to Mike. Can you please pick a frickin running back and stick with him. The starter had 7 carries last week. And Michael Pittman is getting goal line carries. I can't take it anymore.

BROWNS +6 over Steelers

Do we overreact to Steelers destroying Texans? Do we overreact to Browns getting killed by the Cowboys. Browns are desperate to avoid 0-2 start and chants for league's only healthy QB named Brady. Slow start was inevitable with D.A. and Braylon hardly playing in preseason. I thought Donte Stallworth would be a perfect 2 to Braylon Edwards' one, but he came up lame in the warm ups and we won't see him until the fall shows are in reruns based on his injury history. Browns find some rhythm and manage to cover. They have to make this thing close or this thing will get real messy real fast.

Ravens +4.5 over TEXANS

Pseudo Monday night game. Will the Texans ever be decent? If the Texans were the Cubans, I think Mario Williams would sneak onto the plane with the Ravens and claim sanctuary in Baltimore. I have more confidence in Joe Flacco than Matt Schaub. How many more times will teams pay an unproven back up tens of millions of dollars based on almost no evidence to be their starting quarterback. Matt Schaub is this generation's Scott Mitchell.

COWBOYS -7 over Eagles

Cowboys seem back on track to peak way too early, just as they have the last two years. That means they are on track to be in top form against Philly. Will be interesting to see the difference between the St. Louis and Dallas defenses. Especially since Dallas' end of year defense looked a lot like St. Louis' start of year defense. The Cowboys defense is one of those defenses that never seems to be the sum of its parts (another phrase of the week) either. Last year, two good corners, one good safety, above average linebackers, decent d-line, stud outside LB in Demarcus and they still got repeatedly shredded by the pass at the end of last year. Now, is it possible that getting Roy Williams out of pass coverage will make that much of a difference? In a word, yes. Roy Williams is, without exception, the single worst pass coverage defensive back ever. Even if he was near the guy, he always had the amazing ability to have his arms/hands melve through the ball like he should be a character on Heroes. This change is enough. The Cowboys are now complete on defense, especially with the addition of Mr. Jones (he has not first name as far as I am concerned). You see, when your one weakness is that you are susceptible to deep passes for TD's, that's a big weakness. Hole plugged, Brady gone, nothing stands in the Cowboys way except Wade Phillips. But he won't get in the way until January.

Cowboys 34-23.

Please forgive typos and errors, editor had the week off.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

NFL week one: 5 things we learned

Eventful week one leaves juicy morsels for digestion and discussion:

1. Tom Brady was just one half of a pass away from throwing his first touchdown of 2008.

In his record breaking 2007 season, Tom Brady threw a touchdown pass every 11 1/2 pass attempts (11.56 if you want to get nit-picky).  Brady made it 11 passes into this year before Bernard Pollard made the most noteworthy NFL contribution of his career by lunging at Brady's legs whilst Sammie Morris rode him like a cowboy.  The staggering quality of Brady's 2007 performance is mind boggling.  Not every 12 or 15 passes or 20 passes, but every 11.56 passes resulted in a touchdown.  Unforunately for Brady and Pats' fans, he did not get past attempt 11.00.  

The league has been robbed of its best player and fans, nationwide, robbed of their 800 pound gorilla villain in the Patriots.  This will not effect the unabashed joy of the other 97% of NFL fans at the Patriots' inevitable floundering, but something has been lost nonetheless.  None of this can console Patriots' fans who are at this very moment trying to talk themselves into believing in a QB whose last meaningful start came before he had reached his full adult height.  We could ponder where the Patriots go from here, but this is 2008, so let's attack this thing with a 2008 attitude, someone has got to be responsible for this, how do we slice up the blame pie?

A. Bill Belichick:  Did the "genius" do something to bring the Patriots to this point?  Did week after week of reporting a non-existant shoulder injury finally catch up with Bill?  Did reporting no ankle injury for the Superbowl when there clearly was one do it?  Maybe this would have been alright if Bill had reported Brady's foot injury on the week one injury report.  Maybe Bill had just pushed the Karma gods too far.  Maybe Karma said "Hey Bill, you want to sit back every week and chuckle that healthy Brady goes on the injured list when dinged up Brady does not, well here's your payback.  Let's see you mask your injury report now."  Here's a preview of how it will look for the rest of 2008:  "Tom Brady, out, leg".

Certainly this cannot be it.  Everyone fudges their injuries reports, right?  Maybe there was more bad Karma.  Spygate?  Those spiffy court side Celtics' Finals seats?  One too many snarky responses at press conferences?  

No, I still don't think so.  If Bill irked the Karma gods, it had to be with fourth quarter TD's in blow out wins last year.   I'm the last person who is going to bash any team for beating the ever living snot out of their opponents, and doing it consistently and repeatedly.  But there comes a point when you're just being plain cruel.  I think Bill reached this point multiple times last year, just ask Joe Gibbs, who is still wondering if calling a fourth or fifth timeout would have stopped the madness and had the refs call a TKO.  

Miami, Week 7.  Up 42-21 with 10:22 to go, Bill reinserts Brady at QB after putting in Cassel for Brady in the prior series.  Cassel, of course, threw the interception for a touchdown that turned a 28 point lead into a 21 point lead.  Brady promptly marches down the field in a 4 play 59 yard drive culminated with a 16 yard TD pass.  It is imperative to remember that Cleo Lemon was the QB of Dolphins that day.  The Dolphins would not have come back in that game if the Patriots were playing 11 Matt Cassel's on both offense and defense.  This was unnecessarily rubbing salt in the wound.  It's called your running game.  Hand it to your RB and if you have to punt, so be it.  This game was never in doubt and that TD was Brady's sixth of the game. 

Bottom line:  The Patriots were punished for whatever sins they committed by the Giants and Tyree's helmet.  Belichick blame pie slice: 5%.

B. Blitz pick up.  Brady was injured on a blitz in which Sammie Morris did not keep his man off Brady.  Morris is at best the 3rd best back the Patriots have in blitz pick up, being bettered by both Maroney with Faulk being the best of the bunch.  But wait a minute, why was Morris even in there?  His running is stellar, his pass blocking mediocre, just ask Tom's ligaments.  Maroney can't play all passing downs and Faulk was suspended for marijuana at a Lil' Wayne concert.  Now we're getting somewhere.  Not going to blame Morris, he did his best and is not the only guy to partially blow an assignment.  Can we really blame Faulk for doing the Pot at the concert and getting busted?  This just does not seem right after his productive long time Patriots career and apparent lifetime of good citizenship.  NFL, do we really need a 1 game suspension for the Pot bust, at a concert no less?  This wasn't Nate Newton and a couple hundred pounds.  This is a league with more juice and hormones running through it than a sex change clinic.  That one game suspsension seemed like nothing when it hit, but it now appears to have cost the Patriots not only the season, but a year in the prime of the best QB ever.  This, of course, is assuming that he comes back 100% in 2009 which was not been the habit for people with this injury, just saying.  Faulk or Maroney would have made the block.  

Bottom Line:  This is not Faulk's or Morris' or even the NFL's fault.  Faulk gets the most blame for being a college educated 31 year old man at a Lil' Wayne Concert, however:  
Blame Pie Slice: 95% for Lil' Wayne.  His music so bad, grown men needs drugs to endure it.



2. The Preseason does matter:

As the years have progressed, more and more star players have played less and less in the preseason.  While injuries clearly play a part, it has become clear that some have taken the perspective that preseason is an unnecessary risk.  3 examples:

A. Patriots.  Brady does not set foot on field with mystery foot/bone bruise/crack.  Patriots come out with mismatched offensive line leaking like a seive, Brady throwing low passes and it doesn't take 1/2 of a quarter before Brady was gone.  Perhaps some live preseason game reps with this offensive line might have led to more cohesion.  Perhaps Brady would have been a little more in tune to the usual collection of people nipping at his heels with some recent snaps under his belt.  Perhaps preseason does matter.

B. Colts.  Manning takes off whole preseason (granted this was mostly injury related) and the Colts are a disaster and get spanked by the Kyle Orton led Bears.  Did I really just type that?  Maybe it does matter.

C.  Browns.  Derek Anderson whose moniker of D.A. I am a strong proponent of, goes down with a concussion early in preseason and Braylon Edwards barely practices at all prior to week one. D.A. completes 11 total passes with Braylon hauling in 14 receiving yards in a nightmarish week one performance.   Maybe's there something to this preseason thing.  Not results, or points, but perhaps some reps with the people that are going to take you there, has some value.  

On a wholly unrelated point, can someone please tell Romeo that down 28-7 with 10 minutes to go, is not the time to go for a field goal.  Wow.  Has anyone ever needed a game/clock management specialist more than poor Romeo.  He could pick one at random from the dawg pound and do better than poor Romeo does.

3. Jim Zorn owes a lot of people a refund:

There's a lot to harp on with Jim Zorn here.  I am going to keep it short and sweet.  Remember here that Jim Zorn, an offensive specialist, did not change the running offense of the Redskins one iota.  He's not running the defense either.  He is in charge of the infamous "West Coast" passing game.  A friend suggested that Zorny had positioned his troops a little too far West, as in running in sand or hip deep in the ocean based on the offensive performance on opening night, but that's a weak, cheap shot.  

He only changed half the offense.  He had the longest training camp since the Romans were gearing up for a shot at world-wide domination.  And he could not find time to install a 2 minute offense.  When does he think he will have time to do that in the future?  When he is game planning the next week's opponent?  Maybe he will do it during the bye week.  That's week 5, by the way, Browns fans.  

This is embarrassing and infuriating for Redskins fans.  Inexcusable.  As if Dan Snyder has not already compiled a short list of replacement candidates.  Zorny should refund Snyder 1/16 of this years salary for each and every game the Redskins play without a no-huddle offesnse.  It's like playing boxing with one arm tied behind your back.  Without a no huddle offense, are they even trying?  Are they even competing?   You should be ashamed of yourself, Zorny.  

4. Madden is offically completely senile:

This one is just sad.  After a shocking revitalization last year, a more improbable comeback than John Travolta graduating from talking baby flicks to Hollywood heavyweight in the 90's, Madden is back in the toilet again.  You can admit it, it had become laborious and even tense to listen to Madden in recent years.  But last year he pulled it off and was at 75% of the old Madden.  Now, all of that seems gone.  

I honestly do not even think he can see the field compeltely anymore.  He continued to rant and rave like a lunatic about that 1st quarter Manning to Plax pass.  What a pass, what play, Eli Manning's amazing...  He never mentioned the spectacular juggling catch that Plax made while being full body frisked by his defender.  NBC kept running the replay of the this amazing catch and Madden ranted about the throw.  The throw that was an interception waiting to happen if not for a spectacular receiver.  The proper analysis on that play was to marvel at the quality of Plax and the confidence that Manning has in him to throw a 50/50 ball.  It was painful to watch.  NBC seemed to be coaxing him to mention the catch by replaying it in more and more detail, but this was a futile effort.  

Overall performance was painful and I don't expect it to get much better.  Listening to him with Al in the booth is like being at Thanksgiving dinner with that crazy relative just hoping against hope they don't say something massively innapropriate or embarassing.  Combine this with NBC's inferior High Definition broadcast and Sunday Night Football is amateur night.

5. The hot seat is already burning for some:

-Jim Zorn.  I'm sorry to put you on this list one game into your head coaching career, but two factors but you right in with the rest of these worried souls.  1.  Not only did your team look awful, your QB unprepared, but when you go into a game without a no-huddle offense, are you even competing on an even field?  2.  Your owner has the patience of an ADHD riddled 6 y/o after six red bulls.

-Herm Edwards.  He never seems to be on anybody's hot seat and it is nothing but a mystery to me.  This is the man who inherited Parcells' 2000 Jets that were one half away from the Superbowl and promptly ran them into the groung.  After two years of marginal play0ff appearances with Parcells' team at 19-13 and two playoff losses to the Raiders, Herm finished his last three years at 20-28 culminating with a 4-12 season.  The Chiefs then gave up a 4th round draft pick for Herm (not Randy Moss, mind you) who has quickly racked up a 13-20 record with a team that seems hands down to be by far the worst in the NFL.  Add in the lack of discipline of his teams, poor clock managemt, bad play calls and generally awful game management, and you have Herm "we play to win the game" Edwards in a nutshell.  Nice play calls at the end of the NE game, Herm, just keep throwing that same pass, they won't expect it again.  And nice job giving your starting QB job to Brodie Croyle.  Herm cannot survive past this year, I see no more than 3 wins.  

This is the same coach who ran Larry Johnson into the ground a few years ago from which he has never recovered and the same man that kept running the ball against the Colts in the playoffs a few years back even though they had 9 (not 8) but 9 men in the box.  

-Scott Linehan.  11-22 in his 2 plus years.  If your team gets worse by leaps and bounds during your tenure, start updating your resume.  From 8-8 in year one, to 3-13 in year two, to a team that is going to battle Kansas City for worst team in the league honors.  They're so bad they might drive the Rams all the way back to LA.  I'm setting the over/under for NFL wins by the state of Missouri at 7 and betting heavily on the under.  

-Matt Millen.  "Teflon Matt".  I don't know how he does it.  He might be the single most unsuccessful executive in the history of organized sports.  Matt's Lions are 31-82 under his tenure, and he continues to draw a salary.  31-82.   Just last year, the Patriots won almost 60% as many games as Millen's Lions have in 7+ years.  He must have incriminating photos of the incriminating photos to still be employed.  Staggering.  

Quick Hits:

-Jamarcus Russell's agent owes him a big apology and compensation for what might turn into a Ryan Leaf career.  September 12th.  That is when Russell ended his holdout and signed with the Raiders last year.  No training camp, no playbook study, no reps.  2007 was a lost year and Russell now starts 2008 as a 2nd year rookie with expectations.  This is no unfair to poor Russell.  You get these kids coming out of the college and they put their faith in some greedy self serving agent.  Oh he got his money, $31m guaranteed, but his career might never take off after such a sputtering start.  It's hard enough to be a Raider, but to stack all these additional difficulties in your way is ludicrous.  And this is what his paid representative convinced him to do.  Appalling.

-Aaron Rodgers performance may be the most overrated single performance by a QB ever.  At home on Monday Night, against a team with a QB who might not be able to hit the broad side of a barn from 40 yards away, the Packers eeked out a victory as they hoped the Vikings would not march down the field for a go ahead touchdown down 24-19.  Rodgers complied under 180 yards passing with a single touchdown.  It's not that he was bad.  He was fine, he was adequate.  But we must remember who he did this against, the Vikings pass defense.  Last year the Vikings were dead last in pass defense, giving up an average of more than 260 passing yards per game last year.  There was only one other team that gave up 250 yards.  The Vikings pass defense is horrendous, utterly horrendous.  But that hasn't stopped everyone from saying that Rodgers has now successfully replaced Favre.  He had a 178 passing yard, one touchdown game against a horrendous passing unit.   

-Pathetic Victories.  The Patriots and Jets take aim at one another in a battle of the most over-hyped victories of week one.  Both the Patriots and Jets survived last second goal line stands that would have tied or beaten them against the Chiefs and Dolphins respectively.  The Dolphins and Chiefs combined to win 5 games last year and are both look to be awful again this year.  The supposed class of the AFC East eeked out these two victories by the skin of their teeth and their fan bases are behaving very oddly.  Jets fans are celebrating like they have already won the division and Patriots fans have convinced themselves that 11-12 wins are still possible without the franchise.  

Week 2 shocker: Raiders beat Chiefs at KC.  Chiefs really are that bad.  Herm showing more of his brilliance now appears to be leaning towards QB by committee.  That always works well.